Beef outlook
Global beef markets remain tight into 2026 as constrained herds, trade uncertainty, and uneven regional demand support elevated prices.
The US faces multi-decade low cattle inventories and high carcass and cut values. Brazil remains the world's beef export engine at record slaughter, but volumes depend on Chinese buying patterns and the outcome of China's anti-dumping probe (extended January 26). Australia's kills may ease slightly as female slaughter declines, but higher carcass weights and feedlot expansion keep grain-fed volumes competitive. EU animal welfare and deforestation regulations are accelerating culling activity, limiting prime cattle availability in early 2026.
Your wholesale beef costs will remain elevated through Q1 2026 with limited relief in sight. Ground beef, steaks, and roasts will command premium shelf prices. Beef prices surged 9% year-over-year, hitting $8.90/lb at retail. Fed cattle prices in early 2026 are projected between $230-$240 per hundredweight. Unlike milk, where downward momentum drives traffic through price cuts, beef shelf pricing must balance margin protection against volume risk—consumers are price-sensitive on premium proteins.
Persistent price inflation poses a sharp demand contraction risk if prices continue rising in early 2026.
Market participants caution that if beef prices continue rising, demand could contract sharply - exactly as observed in mid-2025. China's demand for imported beef remains subdued amid slow economic recovery and weak consumer confidence. South Korea shows resilient import demand as domestic Hanwoo production tightens, but Japan faces price sensitivity and is shifting toward cheaper proteins. Pork and chicken price moves will continue to influence beef demand.
For retail grocers: This is your critical vulnerability. Persistent price inflation threatens consumer confidence and drives sharp trade-down behavior. Unlike milk's downward price momentum (which rewards consumers), beef's upward trajectory will push shoppers toward cheaper proteins or value beef products (ground blends, prepared items). Improving consumer confidence supports baseline food demand, but cautious spending limits upside potential.
Constrained cattle supply due to structural changes in 2024 and heavy cattle slaughter earlier in 2025 amid record high prices continue to drive UK and EU prices in late Q4-2025.
Slaughter numbers in Q4 2025 could be temporarily limited as producers attempt to rebuild herds and secure longer-term supply.
Three wildcards could ease wholesale costs in Q2 2026; early 2026 remains a procurement planning window.
- Brazil's seasonal pasture improvements during summer/rain season (Jan-March 2026) may ease producer marketing pressure.
- The November 20 White House tariff removal on Brazilian beef could unlock supply increases, contingent on China's anti-dumping probe outcome (January 26 decision).
- Australia's higher carcass weights and feedlot expansion will keep grain-fed volumes competitive.
- Mexico's export reopening timeline remains uncertain.
- New Zealand directs exports toward higher value markets, relying on wider quota access to South Korea.
Q1 2026 remains premium-price territory for procurement. Plan your buying strategy around three critical decision points:
- January 26 China anti-dumping outcome: If tariffs ease, expect Brazilian beef volume increases flowing through alternative markets in Feb-March, potentially easing US wholesale costs in late Q1/early Q2.
- March-April Brazilian pasture inflection: Seasonal supply increases could trigger wholesale relief.
- Mexico export reopening: Monitor for relief potential in H2 2026. Deploy a Price Index Tracker to monitor beef cost movements and benchmark your procurement performance against market volatility.
Beef forecast
Beef prices rose to historic levels in 2025, continuing the extended uptrend that started in 2020, fueled by tightening supply and sustained demand. It is expected that prices will remain high in 2026 due to limited supply. However, after the summer seasonal rally, prices are expected to ease. Our technical and fundamental regression models indicate that the upside potential is limited.
The uptrend in beef prices is showing signs of weakness; implying the upside risk is nearing an end.
Despite the US beef cuts moving independently from one another, they have all steadily risen to historically elevated levels. This is again due to the constrained supply of beef, which will sustain the level over 2026. The individual cuts have a reliable seasonal pattern, causing them to act cyclically.
Expana creates specific, quarterly price targets two years out, along with fundamental graphs and technical models that substantiate the views.
Please contact Expana to get a view of how this works.
Trusted by industry leaders
About Expana
Expana is the world's largest IOSCO-certified commodity price reporting database.
With 36,000+ verified commodity prices and 1,500 price forecasts across agrifood and industrial markets, you can enhance price visibility throughout your supply chain, reduce costs, lower COGS, and mitigate risk.
Brands by Expana: Mintec Analytics, Urner Barry, Feedinfo, Stratégie Grains, Tropical Research Services
Disclaimer
Any forward-looking statements are the views and expectations of the individual market participants. Expana does not have a forward-looking view within this report or associated content. To the extent legally permissible, Expana shall not be liable and disclaims and excludes any and all liability (whether direct or indirect), nor shall Expana be liable in contract, tort (including negligence), misrepresentation (whether innocent or negligent), restitution or otherwise. No information (whether written, electronic or oral) made available herein constitutes or is to be taken as constituting or the giving of investment or financial advice by Expana, or any of its affiliates or their employees to any person, organisation or entity. Any use or reliance on the information and any suggestions, insights or guidance made against such content is entirely at your own risk.
For details on the methodology used to assess the Expana Benchmark Prices, visit this link.