Chicken outlook
US chicken benefits from SNAP recovery and seasonal lean-protein demand, while global trade flows unlock supply for 2026.
Q4's SNAP benefit suspension disrupted retail, but recovery should normalize Q1 2026 demand. Post-holiday lean-protein seasonality will lift consumption. The USDA projects 2% YOY broiler production growth for Q1 2026. Brazil's China ban lift (May 2025 HPAI case) reopens major export outlet. However, EU disease pressures (HPAI and Newcastle) and Ramadan pre-curing (Feb 17-Mar 19) will compete for global supply.
For retail grocers: Rising chicken supplies are likely to keep prices under pressure in early 2026 despite steady demand growth. Chicken becomes your traffic stabilizer - use modest supply growth to maintain competitive pricing relative to beef without aggressive wholesale pass-throughs. Supply remains balanced, not abundant, so don't expect cost relief. Position chicken as the value alternative to expensive beef, capturing trade-down appeal while pork protects margins.
Brazil-China relationship reopens exports; EU disease signals price recovery risk and Ramadan demand could create mid-Q1 tightness.
China's ban lift drives Brazilian chicken exports toward mid-joint-wings and specialty cuts. HPAI and Newcastle disease challenge EU supplies, with market participants anticipating price recovery driven by likelihood of additional disease cases. Middle Eastern Ramadan pre-curing (Feb 17-Mar 19) will support global demand.
For retail grocers:
Monitor three trade signals:
- Brazil-China flows may reduce commodity chicken domestically
- EU disease-driven price spikes could redirect US exports internationally, tightening North American supply;
- Ramadan pre-curing could create mid-Q1 supply pressure. Deploy a Price Index Tracker to monitor wholesale-to-retail movements.
EU demand resilient amid cost-seeking behavior; disease pressures drive price recovery expectations.
EU consumers maintain preference for cost-effective proteins. HPAI and Newcastle disease challenge EU supplies, with market participants anticipating price recovery driven by likelihood of additional disease cases. Regulatory changes (European Chicken Commitment, Better Chicken Commitment) could restrict supplies medium-term.
For retail grocers: EU supply tightness signals potential wholesale cost pressure by mid-2026. Watch disease developments closely for pricing signals.
Chicken forecast
Chicken EU and Chicken US are currently at opposite ends of their respective fundamental considerations.
For example, Chicken EU has seen prices rally well above the fair band, indicating it is far above what the overall fundamental position suggests. This has led to a 4.14% price decline from €302/100 kg to €290/100 kg since October 2025.
The forecast predicts further price declines as we move into 2026.
Chicken US has fallen sharply by 20.97% since Q2 2025, dropping from 135.70 USD cents/lb to 107.25 USD cents/lb. This places Chicken US well below the fair range, indicating that it is currently priced much lower than what the overall fundamentals support.
The forecast predicts further price advances as we move into 2026.
Expana creates specific, quarterly price targets two years out, along with fundamental graphs and technical models that substantiate the views.
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