Glass Outlook
Food and Beverage Packaging
Energy costs drive Q4 pricing in Europe, US, China; food/beverage order levels sluggish; raw material soda ash stabilized but glass waste falling.
Energy is major price driver Q4, especially in Europe, US, and China due to seasonal natural gas/electricity demand during colder weather. Order levels from food and beverage industry remain sluggish throughout Q4 2025. Soda ash prices stabilized at lower annualized levels; processed and unprocessed glass waste prices continue falling due to full inventories and decreased trade activity.
For retail grocers: Higher energy-driven glass manufacturing costs have already flowed into 2025 shelf prices for beverages, jarred sauces, condiments, spreads, and prepared foods. Sluggish F&B order levels create downward price momentum - expect modest wholesale cost relief on glass-packaged goods (especially condiments, spreads, sauces, jarred vegetables) through Q1 as manufacturers clear excess inventory. However, relief is limited given energy inflation remains structural.
On the raw materials side, soda ash prices have stabilized, albeit at lower annualized levels, market participants said. However, processed and unprocessed glass waste prices continue to fall, with sources reporting that trade activity has decreased due to full inventories.
H1 2026 demand remains sluggish; furnace closures anticipated; international trade dynamics shift by tariffs on China/US sourcing.
Market sources do not expect 2026 any better than 2025; sluggish demand anticipated to continue. Manufacturers facing permanent furnace closures (not just production line shutdowns) due to poor demand. Glass waste supply (cullet availability) dependent on short-term consumption patterns. International trade remains in focus—especially tariffs impacting China/US glass markets. Buyers currently sourcing domestically due to China tariffs, increasing short-term US demand; however, improved US-China trade relations may resume Chinese imports, reducing domestic pricing support.
For retail grocers: Furnace closures = supply tightness mid-2026 despite current weak demand. Tariff-driven domestic sourcing temporarily supports US suppliers (higher prices), but normalization of China trade could reverse this. Your beverage bottle and jarred good costs face bifurcated scenario: Q1-Q2 modest relief from sluggish demand; Q3 onward potential tightness if furnace closures reduce capacity and imports resume. Monitor tariff policy closely - this is your pricing inflection point.
Weak sentiment anticipated; sideways-to-downtrend pricing likely, except energy volatility and geopolitical shocks could spike prices.
Full inventories plus sluggish demand = weak market sentiment. Prices expected to oscillate sideways or downtrend. However, energy volatility from geopolitical events could drive spikes. US buyers faced higher glass prices driven by China tariffs, pushing domestic sourcing; tariff normalization expected to ease pricing long-term.
For retail grocers: Q1 2026 = opportunity window. Lock in glass-packaged beverage and condiment pricing while weak demand supports wholesale relief. Expect modest cost savings on jarred goods (sauces, spreads, pickles, jams). Build inventory strategically - furnace closures and tariff normalization could tighten mid-2026. Monitor energy prices and tariff developments; geopolitical shocks could create sudden wholesale cost spikes. Position Q1 margin gains carefully for Q2-Q3 headwinds.
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