PET Plastics Outlook
Food and Beverage Packaging
Global PET market faces weak demand; macroeconomic headwinds and lower consumer spending drive Q4 2025 sluggishness.
Weak demand remains key concern across global PET supply chain. Sources anticipate macroeconomic headwinds and lower consumer demand to continue driving PET market Q4 2025. Aside from possible seasonal demand increase from heightened cooking oil packaging in China, participants see little to change short-term fundamentals. Ample supply combines with soft demand to depress pricing.
For retail grocers: Weak PET demand = wholesale cost relief on plastic beverage bottles, food containers, and packaging through Q1 2026. Cooking oil packaging surge in China provides temporary demand lift but won't offset global sluggishness. Your plastic-packaged goods (bottled water, juices, dressings, sauces, prepared meals in clamshells) should see modest wholesale price relief. Lock in Q1 procurement while weak demand persists.
Crude oil and paraxylene (key PET raw materials) driven by geopolitical conflict; ceasefire in Israel-Hamas lowered energy transport concerns but rapid conflict shifts remain key pricing driver.
Market players monitor paraxylene dynamics closely. Crude oil prices will be key H1 2026 driver. Geopolitical conflicts - Russia-Ukraine, Israel-Hamas - remain in focus. Ceasefire in latter conflict lowered crude oil transport concerns and supply anxiety. However, rapidly changing conflict dynamics mean significant shifts (escalation or peace deals) will drive PET pricing Q1/H1 2026.
For retail grocers: Geopolitical stability = PET cost relief; escalation = cost spikes. Current ceasefire supports downward price momentum. However, Middle East tension is wildcard - any escalation could tighten crude supply, raising paraxylene/production costs. Monitor conflict news; sudden escalation signals incoming wholesale cost pressure. Use current calm for pricing locks; prepare contingency for Q2 shock scenarios.
Ample supply and weak demand drive PET prices downward; however, Middle East conflict escalation could spike crude/paraxylene costs and reverse pricing trend.
Current fundamentals - ample supply, weak demand - push PET prices lower. However, escalations in energy-sensitive regions (especially Middle East) could increase crude oil availability concerns, raising paraxylene and production costs, reversing downtrend.
For retail grocers: Q1 2026 = PET pricing tailwind. Aggressive shelf pricing on plastic beverage bottles, water, juices, and plastic food containers to drive traffic and offset meat/seafood premium pricing. Lock in procurement before H1. Geopolitical escalation is your risk - any Middle East conflict spike could reverse relief by mid-2026. Position Q1 margin gains; prepare for Q2+ volatility. Monitor crude oil and geopolitical developments closely.
Trusted by industry leaders
Disclaimer
Any forward-looking statements are the views and expectations of the individual market participants. Expana does not have a forward-looking view within this report or associated content. To the extent legally permissible, Expana shall not be liable and disclaims and excludes any and all liability (whether direct or indirect), nor shall Expana be liable in contract, tort (including negligence), misrepresentation (whether innocent or negligent), restitution or otherwise. No information (whether written, electronic or oral) made available herein constitutes or is to be taken as constituting or the giving of investment or financial advice by Expana, or any of its affiliates or their employees to any person, organisation or entity. Any use or reliance on the information and any suggestions, insights or guidance made against such content is entirely at your own risk.
For details on the methodology used to assess the Expana Benchmark Prices, visit this link.