Pork outlook
Late Q4 supply surge meets elevated beef and chicken prices, positioning pork as the value protein of 2026.
Late Q4 2025 marks an uptrend in US pork supplies as heavier hog weights and increased slaughter runs create fully adequate availability across most primals on the spot market. These supply conditions keep most fresh pork items steady to softer. Heavier hog weight trends and increasing slaughter levels remain central drivers for early 2026. Importantly, US pork remains competitively cheaper than turkey and beef. Early Q1 in the EU is projected to bring strong hog supplies once holiday-related backlogs clear. Meanwhile, China's unchanged tariff structure (combined US retaliatory tariff near 47%, plus 12% base import tariff and 13% VAT) continues to limit Chinese demand, keeping large muscle cuts unsold and export demand centered on variety meats instead.
This is a traffic opportunity. Wholesale pork costs are under downward pressure while beef and chicken remain stubbornly elevated. Fresh pork items are steady to softer, meaning your input costs should ease or stabilize through early 2026. Pork prices rose only about 0.8% year-over-year, holding near $3.78 per pound in late 2025. As beef and chicken prices remain high, elevated beef prices could bolster consumer interest in pork cuts. This creates a powerful shelf positioning moment: pork is the value alternative.
Low feed costs support heavier weights and rising slaughter volumes, extending supply adequacy through Q1 2026.
Demand is expected to remain steady. While processors are increasing Q4 production to limit holiday-related hog buildup, reduced slaughter capacities over the Christmas and New Year period are expected to result in a Q1 backlog in the EU. Once it clears, industry participants anticipate adequate supplies moving forward. Domestic buying interest is likely to remain steady in early 2026.
The Q1 backlog is a non-event for North American retailers; US supply momentum is positive. The key advantage: low feed costs are sustaining hog profitability, supporting continued supply growth into early 2026. This means downward cost pressure or pricing stability on wholesale pork through at least Q2 2026. Unlike beef (where retail gross margins face squeeze) or milk (where declining wholesale costs reward aggressive pass-throughs), pork sits in a sweet spot - wholesale costs stable or declining while consumer demand shifts toward your department seeking value. This is the window to protect and grow pork margins while using competitive pricing to drive traffic away from expensive beef/chicken.
China's unchanged tariff framework limits export demand; Mexico absorbs hams and variety meats; EU export flows remain key to market balance.
National Pork Producers Council notes that US retaliatory tariff on China remains near 47%, while the 12% base import tariff and 13% VAT also remain unchanged. These combined costs keep China from importing as much US pork as historically, limiting interest in major muscle cuts and keeping demand centered on variety meats instead. Mexico remains the primary outlet for exported hams and variety meats. In the EU, exporters are keeping close eye on global trade flows, as pork exports remain key to balancing the market. China's tariff framework ranges from 15.6% to 62.4%.
For retail grocers: Export demand remains dampened through 2026, which means:
- Increased domestic supply availability: More US pork remaining in the domestic market = continued downward pressure or stability on your wholesale costs.
- Strategic flexibility on primals: With China unable to absorb US muscle cuts profitably, your wholesale suppliers have excess supply to place domestically. Use this to negotiate favorable pricing on premium pork cuts while maintaining value pricing on commodity primals. Deploy a Price Index Tracker to monitor your pork cost movements and benchmark your procurement performance.
US prices trend steady-to-lower across much of the pork complex in late-Q4 as larger supplies and higher hog weights lift production.
Most fresh cuts remain steady to softer. Trim markets hold mostly steady on adequate offerings, while hams trended lower heading into Thanksgiving on ample supplies.
With sufficient supply and stable to soft demand for EU pork, market sources indicated a steady-to-weak market sentiment.
Cuts across the shoulder, trimmings and the leg complex are expected to face downward price pressure because of low seasonal demand, while typical roasting and stewing items could see some upward price potential, industry sources said.
Pork forecast
US CME pork and its forecasted cuts are now approaching temporary lows.
The complex has been led lower by the CME contract. Highlighting the leading relationship between the financially traded contract and its cuts has presented an opportunity to lock in prices on lean hogs, butts, and hams. Meanwhile, ribs, trimmings, and bellies are all nearing possible lows. However, they have not crossed key indicators for initiating hedges.
EU pork prices have been decimated by the implementation of tariffs by China, removing important demand from the market. These tariffs expired on December 16.
Prices could rebound if China resumes buying, but this is unknown at this time. Seasonally, EU pork does increase in Q1, so that upward pressure could be amplified if Chinese buyers return to the market.
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