Shrimp outlook
Q4 typically sees increased shrimp consumption in western markets due to the festive season.
However, import demand tends to slow in the US and Europe, as freezers are stocked, and processors complete final deliveries to the foodservice and retail sectors.
Q4 demand softens post-holiday; freezer stocking complete; China's Lunar New Year prep (Feb) will dominate Q4/Q1 vannamei pricing.
Q4 typically sees festive consumption but import demand slows in US/Europe as freezers are stocked and final holiday deliveries complete. China's preparation for Lunar New Year (February) is key factor shaping Q4 dynamics. Chinese purchasing currently steady, but uncertainties persist over quantities needed for Feb-March given existing inventory levels. US tariff changes on India and Ecuador (primary shrimp suppliers) will directly affect pricing and impact 2026 spring seeding volumes in Asia.
For retail grocers: Fresh shrimp prices increased 11 percent; frozen shrimp price inflation rose 8.6 percent to USD 8.51/lb in September. Post-holiday inventory destocking through January creates wholesale supply availability, but China's Lunar New Year absorption (Feb) will tighten Q1/Q2 sourcing. Monitor US tariff policy - potential reductions on India/Ecuador could ease 2026 pricing; increases would spike wholesale costs. Your frozen shrimp shelf prices are currently elevated; use post-holiday inventory glut for Q1 pricing reductions.
Ecuador vannamei production steady; India/Vietnam face reduced raw material from fall harvest; US tariff policy is pricing wildcard.
Ecuador's vannamei production remains steady. India and Vietnam face reduced raw material availability with fall harvest complete. US heavily frontloaded spring 2025; EU/UK imports up 6.8% YOY Jan-Sept 2025. Q1 demand shaped by replacement needs versus available supply post-holiday destocking.
For retail grocers: Reduced Asia raw material availability in Q1 supports tighter supply through spring. However, Ecuador's steady output provides baseline supply floor. Tariff policy is the variable - monitor Trump administration announcements on India/Ecuador duties. If tariffs rise, expect 15-25% wholesale cost increases Q2 onward; if eased, modest relief emerges. Spring demand recovery (Easter early April, tourism May) will firm vannamei prices mid-Q1.
Q4 pricing softens: CFR 40-50 HOSO to EU 10% below five-year average; November typically sees lower values; buyer resistance steady.
Vannamei prices held relatively stable early Q4, though November softens seasonally. CFR 40-50 HOSO prices into EU about 10% below five-year average. October recorded second-lowest monthly average in that period. Q4 demand not keeping pace; buyer resistance resulting in steady, at times declining, trend.
For retail grocers: Seasonal Q4 weakness = procurement opportunity. Lock in Q1 frozen shrimp buys during softer December pricing; build inventory ahead of Lunar New Year absorption tightening. Spring recovery (Easter, tourism) and shorter Asia raw material supply Q1 will firm prices - front-load margin on frozen shrimp through Jan-Feb, then prepare for Q2 margin compression if tariffs rise or supply tightens.
Shrimp forecast
Prices have likely peaked in Q4, after tariffs increased them this year to levels that will be difficult to sustain in a soft-demand environment. Recent price declines have varied by origin (and its respective tariff rate) and product form.
But we expect prices overall will remain elevated in the early part of next year, aided by favorable seasonal trends until early Spring and higher costs.
Technical indicators vary depending on product form, but there are signs that uptrends are weakening or even, in some cases, reversing.
Expana creates specific, quarterly price targets two years out, along with fundamental graphs and technical models that substantiate the views.
Please contact Expana to get a view of how this works.
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