Soybean Outlook
Sources told Expana that China’s recent purchases of US soybeans have provided firm support to soybean prices, although market players remain cautious about the longevity and scale of these volumes.
Traders said that South American offers remain more competitive, and many view the uptick in US buying as politically driven rather than a signal of sustained demand.
The International Grains Council forecasts global soybean consumption at a record of 430 million mt for the 2025/2026 season. Market players said continued growth in the livestock sector remains the primary driver of this demand outlook.
For retail grocers: Soybean demand-supply dynamics directly impact animal feed costs, which flow through to meat protein prices (beef, pork, chicken margins already tight). Record global consumption driven by livestock growth means soybean meal costs remain firm. However, global soybean market set to tighten in 2025/26. Political trade noise creates pricing volatility but not structural relief. Lock in Q1 soybean meal pricing; expect sustained pressure on livestock feed costs through mid-2026.
Brazil's export program reflects stronger demand: November shipments up 82% YOY; October exports up 44% YOY.
Sources expect Brazilian November soybean shipments to reach 4.26 million mt vs. previous projection of 3.77 million mt - 82% above November 2024 levels. October exports also rose sharply, up 44% YOY. Brazil's strong export momentum reflects robust global demand.
For retail grocers: Brazilian export strength sustains global soybean supply without relief pricing. Strong Brazilian volumes prevent South American supply tightness. However, US WASDE November report lowered both domestic production and stock forecasts for 2025/2026 - tighter US supply outlook could strengthen bullish sentiment if traders remain unsure about US-China sustainability. Watch: if political trade support fades, soybean prices could spike mid-Q1. Tighter times ahead for the soybean market. This directly impacts livestock feed costs and, by extension, meat shelf prices.
Higher biofuel mandates from the US and Brazil are expected to boost domestic demand for soybean oil, potentially tightening exportable supply further.
Government policies will remain a key price driver in 2026.
As of November 25, the Expana benchmark price for Soyabean Oil FCA Netherlands [Expana code: SBOR] increased by 2.84% MOM, primarily driven by optimism following US–China trade agreements and tighter global supplies.
Chicago soybean futures have also risen, by a larger margin of 5.25% MOM, reflecting similar drivers and highlighting the tendency of futures markets to react more sharply and display greater volatility than the underlying physical market.
Soybean Forecast
Commentary by Jamie Pakenham-Walsh
Soybean prices rallied strongly throughout Q4 due to some bullish fundamental news.
Prices are in the early days of a new long-term uptrend, which suggests higher prices into 2026.
Seasonality supports the idea of this rally largely continuing into Q2, but this is not going to happen in a straight line, and some kind of pullback in Q1 is likely. Overall, there will certainly be opportunities to mitigate upside risk with strategic buying, and waiting for the correct signals ensures the highest likelihood of beneficial hedging.
Expana creates specific, quarterly price targets two years out, along with fundamental graphs and technical models that substantiate the views.
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