Wheat & Corn Outlook
WHEAT
Global wheat and corn oversupply caps prices through Q1 2026; recovery potential signals margin opportunity for Q2.
Q4 2025 global wheat market is heavily oversupplied. Russia yields in Urals and Siberia came far above projections, significantly lifting output. Australian production recovered following dry start. EU rebounded sharply from last year's weather-affected harvest. Argentina set up for strong crop, though flooding poses risk.
For retail grocers: Wheat oversupply creates wholesale cost relief for bread, flour, and baked goods through Q1 2026. When wheat or other grains increase in price, bread, rolls, and bakery items follow. Use this to aggressively pass through shelf price reductions and drive traffic.
Looking ahead to Q1 2026: weather and political developments drive pricing as acreage decisions near.
Wheat pricing will be driven largely by weather outcomes and political developments as winter sowing campaigns near completion and attention shifts to 2026/2027 crop formation. Russia expected to reduce wheat acreage by up to 6%; other producers may follow suit given oversupply, with some shifting focus toward oilseed cultivation instead. Early acreage announcements could have minor price influence.
For retail grocers: Track acreage reduction announcements - if producers exit grain production, Q2 tightness could reverse early 2026 cost relief. Front-load margin gains in Q1.
US-China trade optimism briefly lifted grain futures; prices corrected lower as oversupply reality reasserted.
Recent US-China trade negotiations lifted grain futures over the past month as optimism grew around potential revival in Chinese buying. However, prices corrected lower as underlying global oversupply reasserted itself.
As of November 25, Euronext wheat futures [Expana code: WHT2] are down 1.94% on the month and Chicago futures [Expana code: WHTC] have fallen 0.71%, with declines amplified by intense competition among major exporters to secure wheat business.
For retail grocers: Trade volatility is a noise layer. Core dynamic remains oversupply. Use Q1 to maximize shelf gains before any trade-driven recovery.
CORN
Corn similarly oversupplied; global production up 60M metric tons YOY as US, Brazil harvest records.
Corn is largely oversupplied. US and Brazil harvested record crops; Ukrainian output rebounded significantly. Global corn production up 60 million metric tons YOY. Argentina's corn sowing campaign faces flooding risks; traders cautious about excessive water limiting output. Higher biofuel mandates from US and Brazil could reduce exportable supply as domestic demand rises. EU corn acreage expected smaller as yields disappointing.
For retail grocers: Corn oversupply parallels wheat - aggressive wholesale cost relief for cereals, animal feed inputs, and corn-based products. Similar traffic-driving opportunity through aggressive shelf pricing.
Corn futures trading signals: Euronext down 0.95%, Chicago down 1.17%; technical recovery potential emerging.
Higher biofuel mandates from the US and Brazil could also impact exportable supply, as domestic demand rises. As well as this, market players are expecting a smaller planned area for EU corn as yields have been disappointing in 2025/2026.
For retail grocers: Biofuel demand diverts US/Brazil corn domestically, reducing export supply globally. This supports baseline tightness beneath current oversupply glut. However, EU yield disappointment could tighten corn supplies medium-term.
Monitor: if biofuel mandates accelerate or EU acreage contracts sharply, Q2 corn costs could spike faster than wheat. Prepare customer pricing messaging.
As of November 25, Euronext corn futures [Expana code: CRNP] are down by 0.95%, while Chicago futures [Expana code: CRNC] are down by 1.17%. Recent developments in US–China trade negotiations had lifted grain futures over the past month, as optimism grew around a potential revival in Chinese buying. However, the global supply situation led to corrections, bringing prices down.
For retail grocers: Similar to wheat-aggressive Q1 margin capture; monitor technical reversal signals for mid-Q2 inflection when wholesale costs tighten.
Wheat & Corn Forecast
Commentary by Alana Barros
Euronext Wheat EU and CME Wheat US have been in an extensive downtrend, and the fundamentals suggest they could be overextended. Both prices are significantly below the fair value range, and technical indicators warn of a possible approaching low.
This means the downside potential is getting limited, leading to a price recovery as we move into 2026.
A price bottom has not yet been confirmed, and thus, we are monitoring for conclusive evidence.
Similarly, after extensive price declines for both Euronext maize EU and CME corn US, the market has begun to show signs of a price recovery.
Fundamentally, both prices are more than 10% below the fair value range, indicating upside potential for 2026. The technical indicators also confirm that the market is likely to be at the early stage of a trend shift into an uptrend, which, if confirmed, could indicate higher prices into early 2026.
Expana creates specific, quarterly price targets two years out, along with fundamental graphs and technical models that substantiate the views.
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