Beef
Beef
Price movements (monthly)
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Cattle steer ddwt R3 mp EU
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USDA Five Area Direct Cattle Data, Live Steer Price
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UB 114A 3 Chuck, Shoulder Clod, Roast Choice-(TL)..
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UB 189A 4 Loin, Beef Tenderloin, PSMO, Defat Up..
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UB 189A 4 Loin, Beef Tenderloin, PSMO, Defat Up..
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Key takeaways
- EU beef supplies are expected to fall further in 2026 due to shrinking suckler cow herds, driven by producer profitability pressures and stricter sustainability and environmental standards. Income support and certain eco-schemes under the new Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), together with a relatively favourable price outlook, can only slow down this declining trend.
- While overall demand for beef in EU is being described as stable, there has been a notable shift in the types of beef products purchased across these markets.
- US boxed beef market continued to weaken with both the Choice and Select cutout trending lower throughout December 2025. Cash cattle prices climbed through the month as supplies remained tight and nerves easing slightly from the plant closure notice and the tariff cut on Brazilian product. Demand in boxed beef slowed as more buyers met their holiday needs end December and began to focus on 2026.
- Average beef price in the EU (as of 10 December 2025) fell by 1.61% M-o-M to €7,255.35 per metric ton, primarily driven by sluggish market demand.
- Year-on-year (Y-o-Y) price strength has also remained robust, primarily due to persistent supply-side constraints. According to market participants, the deadweight beef trade continues to perform strongly, supported by tight cattle supplies and relatively stable demand across mainland Europe and the UK.
- US live cattle prices decreased by 2.64% M-O-M to $221/cwt (December 2025). This was still up by 12.67% Y-o-Y.
- Cattle slaughter was down 2.3% Y-o-Y, and is running below year to date (YTD) levels by 6.2% (week of December 20).
- Average dressed steer weight as of December 17 was 895 lbs, up 27 lbs Y-O-Y and up 2 lbs W-O-W, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). The USDA’s estimated beef production numbers for 2025 were 25.950 billion lbs, 3.8% below 2024.
Beef
Supply trends
US Supply
Live steer prices by 14.85% Y-o-Y, averaging $228.55 per cwt (week ending 15 December 2025)
According to the USDA monthly Cattle on Feed Report, cattle on feed in US feedyards with a capacity of 1,000 or more as of December 1 was 2% below year-ago levels. Placements were roughly 11% lower Y-o-Y for November, the lowest they have been since 1996.
The USDA’s estimated 2025 beef production number was 25.950 billion lbs due to record high weekly average carcass weights.
Total US beef imports in August 2025 totalled 414 million lbs, just shy of 2% lower when compared to a year ago. US beef imports from Brazil and New Zealand were lower, but were offset by the increase from Australia.
Australia Supply
Australia’s beef exports reached an unprecedented 1,398,224 mt in cumulative volume through November 2025, according to the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry (DAFF).
Despite global trade pressures, multi‑decade herd lows in the US worked in Australia's favor, allowing it to increase supplies to the world's largest beef consumer. Reduced US supply led Japan and Korea to rely more heavily on Australian beef.
Beyond supply constraints, the US‑Sino trade war cleared the way for expanded Australian grain‑fed shipments to China. On an annual basis, YTD volumes rose a solid 15.0% Y-o-Y or 182,050 mt.
Brazil Supply
Brazil’s fresh beef exports in November 2025 totaled 318,494 mt, easing marginally by 0.6% from October’s record but remaining sharply higher (+39.6%) Y-o-Y.
China remained the top destination accounting for 55.4% of the total volume, down 5.8% from October to 176,395 mt, but still 43.4% higher compared to last year.
Russia ranked second with 16,695 mt, nearly doubling M-o-M (four times higher Y-o-Y), while Chile placed third at 14,689 mt, rising 16.3% M-o-M and 38.0% YOY.
Shipments to the US totaled 11,071 mt, broadly stable M-o-M but 60% lower than last year, reflecting earlier tariff constraints despite improved access post-tariff removals.
EU Supply
The European Commission (EC) forecasts EU beef and veal production to decline to 6.4 million metric tons (carcass weight equivalent, CWE) in 2026, representing a 0.8% year-on-year (Y-O-Y) decrease, largely attributed to ongoing reductions in breeding herd sizes, particularly in France, Spain, and Germany, although gains in Ireland, Italy, and Poland provide partial offset.
In 2026, EU beef imports are projected to decline by 4.7% Y-o-Y, supported by constrained global supplies and tightening EU regulatory requirements.
Beef
Price drivers
Feed Costs
In December 2025, the USDA raised its 2025/26 global wheat forecast by 1.1% M-o-M to 837 million mt. According to market sources, the overall European winter wheat seeding has met expectations, and crop development is generally favourable, limiting upside pressure on prices.
EU production for the 2025/26 season has been revised down to 57.5 million mt from an earlier forecast of 59.5 million mt, reflecting a record-low planted area in key producing countries and reduced import flows into the region. US corn retains a strong competitive edge, supported by expectations of record export demand in the 2025/26 marketing year.
Rising freight costs
The shipping 40ft container composite index [Expana code: ZB99] stood at $2070/unit in December 2025.
Container freight rates continued to rise in December. Expectations for a recovery in shipping in the Red Sea have not been met, and carriers are still seeking to avoid this route, considering it unsafe.
Rising electricity prices
In Europe, lower natural gas prices weighed on electricity prices, with the former commodity functioning as a major input for electricity generation. Furthermore, electricity generation increased across the continent.
Players anticipate heightened heating demand over winter, but with declining natural gas prices, some participants believe any electricity price rises could be limited.
Prices rose marginally in the US, following the recent trend in natural gas prices prior to December mild correction.
In line with colder weather forecasts, market sources expect a continued increased heating demand.
Beef
Price forecast
UB 114A 3 Chuck, Shoulder Clod, Roast Choice-(TL) EBP
- The price of Chuck followed our forecast in 2025. After a Q1 low, a rally to the upside and to a late Q2/early Q3 top was expected. Then a decline to the year’s end was forecasted. Trends and duration were accurate across all targets. In the most part, so was amplitude, apart from the uptrend that took us from the Q1 low to the mid-year top, where the price rose slightly further than anticipated. Nevertheless, the impulsive rise to the price peak was covered by two hedges, recommended early in 2025. Both were beneficial.
- After the summer peak, the price continued to follow the forecast and fell to a Q4 low. During this, the hedging recommendation was set to Avoid. No hedging was recommended during the downtrend from the top to the low, providing benefit as the price low had not been achieved and the risk to the downside was still apparent.
- In late December 2025, the price rose and the signal to initiate hedging was received. A partial hedge was recommended and has been beneficial so far. The price is forecasted to continue rising. Seasonality, low supply and the bullish market in the US, are all placing upward pressure on the Chuck price.
Beef Trimmings, 50% Fresh Chemical Lean FOB River-(TL) EBP
- In 2025 Beef trimmings 50% followed our targets, where we expected a period of sideways movement before a price increase in the summer period. After the increase into summer, a fall in price to the end of the year was forecasted. The uptrend to the summer top rose further than we had anticipated, rising to historically high levels and forming a large bubble above the regression fair band, indicating the price was too high in accordance with the overall fundamental outlook. The target amplitude may not have been 100% accurate, but the trend direction and duration of the upward price move were. Additionally, the volatile price move was covered by 3 separate hedges we had recommended in late 2024/early 2025. After the summer top the price fell, as all price bubbles do, to a Q4 low.
- In November 2025, the price rose once more, and the signals to initiate partial hedging were received. A partial hedge covering from the start of November 2025 to the end of April 2026 was recommended. Benefits were seen at the start of the hedge, but at the start of December 2025 the price of 50% fell. After a month of decline, the price has shown upside strength and the risk to the upside is growing. The November hedge may not have been beneficial in December, but we believe it will still bring savings in 2026.
- A new hedging opportunity is near. The price is rising, due to the seasonal demand heading into summer. Record low supply of beef in the US poses more upside risk. Our technical models also suggest that we need to Plan for another hedging opportunity.
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