Chicken
Chicken
Price movements (monthly)
veniam aute
Occaecat et deserunt esse duis nulla.
veniam aute
Occaecat et deserunt esse duis nulla.
veniam aute
Occaecat et deserunt esse duis nulla.
veniam aute
Occaecat et deserunt esse duis nulla.
Chicken ddwt mp EU
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
UB Chicken - WOG CHICKENS 3-3.5 lbs, EBP
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
Chicken ddwt grade A NY US
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
UB Chicken - East, Jumbo Breast Tenders EBP
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
UB Chicken - East Jumbo Boneless/Skinless Breasts, Tender Out EBP
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
EU Chicken
- The average price of chicken in the EU fell by 2.45% month-over-month (M-o-M) due to increased supplies on the market in November 2025.
- Market sources reported rising cases of avian influenza have been pushing poultry farmers to send large numbers of chickens for slaughter.
- Nevertheless, EU chicken prices remain strong year-over-year (Y-o-Y) due to record high prices earlier in 2025.
- Driven by active demand out of distributive and retail-facing trade channels, 3-3.5lb. WOGs experiences a mid-month uptick in spot valuation. This, in combination with a well-accounted for production landscape, left spot values climbing 12.3%, or $0.08 / lb. Also contributing to the supply-side pinch were heavier-than-anticipated average live weights which further exacerbated the supply pinch.
- Several regulatory requirements are further challenging the production cycle across the region. As a result, EU chicken production is likely to decline year-on-year (Y-o-Y).
US Chicken
- Keeping in line with the generally subdued backdrop observed in October 2025, market-swaying developments within the US chicken sector was relatively limited last month. Most indications pointed to a supportive undertone with blips of premium-facing transactional activity noted in the WOG complex.
- Year-to-date headcount through the week ending 22 November 2025 reached 7.9 billion, marking a new record high.
- On the live weight side, weekly readings continued to touch on new seasonal highs, spanning as far as 0.16 lbs. above the previous year.
Chicken
Supply trends
US Supply
According to the USDA, cumulative chicken headcount through the week ending 27 November 2025 reached 7.9 billion. This figure is 2.09%, or 161.9 million head, above the same period one year prior.
The year-to-date weekly average live weight stands at 6.61 lbs., compared with 6.57 lbs. during the same period in 2024.
EU Supply
According to the European Commission (EC), poultry production in the European Union, of which chicken accounts for approximately 80-85%, is projected to rise by 2.1% year-over-year (Y-o-Y), reaching 14.4 million metric tons (carcass weight equivalent, CWE) in 2025. Rising cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in the EU have forced farmers to send their poultry birds for early slaughter, increasing supplies on the market.
According to EC, EU chicken imports are projected to increase by 8%, reaching 906,000 tons in 2025. This growth is driven by higher shipments from the United Kingdom and the lifting of the HPAI-related ban on Brazilian poultry, a key supplier that accounted for 33% of EU poultry imports in 2024. Additionally, imports from Ukraine are also expected to increase.
Chicken
Price drivers
Logistic costs
The shipping 40ft container composite index [Expana code: ZB99] stood at $1,806/unit on November 27, down by 2% w-o-w. Prices had been increasing in recent weeks, as shipping lines attempted to stabilize rates.
However, prices have since dropped in line with low demand, and market sources report that many retailers have completed their orders ahead of the holiday season. The reopening of the Red Sea passage is eventually expected to alleviate pressure on shipping lanes, but market sources anticipate short-term congestion at ports due to schedule disruption.
Feed Costs
Strong global supply outlook has weighed on wheat, as IGC and USDA increase their monthly global output projections. Excess water is becoming more of a concern in Argentina and could marginally limit losses in the near term but also lead to further unexpected increases in feed supply. US wheat conditions have improved towards the end of the month, increasing optimism among traders.
Corn futures found some support this month due to a slight decline in global production forecast from the USDA, as well as a instances of short covering ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday. However, sources say that unless demand picks up significantly, prices will stay in a bearish range, primarily due to harvest pressure from the US. Poor EU yields and slow Ukrainian harvests provided some support to corn prices.
Electricity Prices
Like the previous month, electricity prices in Europe and the US diverged throughout November 2025, with drivers in each region differing.
In Europe, sources reported increased demand during the month, reflected in the strong price uptrend. However, across the US, players noted an annualized rise in electricity generation, weighing on prices.
Chicken
Price forecast
Chicken ddwt grade A NY US
The price of chicken in the US and its regression fair value range experienced a significant increase from a low point in the second quarter of 2020. This rise was primarily driven by a notable increase in feeder costs, which went up due to higher demand for feed and rising production expenses. Additionally, a substantial depletion of chicken inventories resulted from an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), which destroyed millions of commercially raised chickens. This outbreak created a supply shock in the market, leading to higher chicken prices and impacting overall supply dynamics.
The current price of chicken in the US remains significantly below the established fair value range of 136-155 USD cents per pound. This indicates that the market is in an anti-bubble phase, with the potential for prices to rise as they approach fair value.
The fair value is determined through a comprehensive evaluation of market fundamentals, including supply levels, demand trends, and production costs. As the fair value range widens in response to changing market conditions, it adds upward pressure on chicken prices, signalling possible future price increases.
U.S. chicken inventories are projected to grow throughout 2026, which is likely to put neutral pressure on prices due to limited increased supply. Meanwhile, feeder costs, which have historically been low, are beginning to rise, leading to higher production expenses that could further push prices upward. Seasonality patterns indicate a typical seasonal low in October, followed by increases through the remainder of 2025 and into the first quarter of 2026. Currently, prices are influenced by reaching this seasonal trough, resulting in upward pressure. Overall, current prices are below the estimated fair value range, which is rising, thus supporting an upward trend in prices and reinforcing the forecast of increases into 2026.
UB Chicken - East Jumbo Whole Wings EBP
The price of whole chicken wings has recently declined to 0.82 USD per pound, which is significantly below the estimated range of 1.57 to 2.12 USD per pound. This estimated range is based on the commodity's overall fundamental factors, indicating an appropriate pricing spectrum. Notably, the estimated range has been declining in recent weeks, but is now showing a reversal, which will add upward pressure to current pricing levels.
US cold storage holdings of whole chicken wings remain at historically low levels, and the USDA forecasts a continued decline in global inventories through 2026. Inventory levels, measured in weeks of consumption, are currently extremely low at just 0.1 weeks.
The United States continues to experience frequent outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), with 41 outbreaks reported in the first four months of 2025. These outbreaks have affected over 30 million birds this year, raising concerns about potential supply shortages. This situation is a primary factor influencing prices from an inventory standpoint.
Seasonality also affects prices predictably: a decline typically occurs in Q4, followed by a rise in early Q1, and then a subsequent decline. The Q4 decline has already occurred, and Q1 is beginning a short-term seasonal increase, which is likely to put upward pressure on prices.
In summary, the current price remains well below its estimated fair range, suggesting an undervaluation relative to fundamental market conditions. The outlook for 2026 indicates an increase in prices, supported by ongoing supply concerns and seasonal patterns.
UB Chicken - East Jumbo Boneless/Skinless Breasts, Tender Out EBP
The position of Breast Tender Out is that the current price of 1.29 USD/lb remains within the established fair value range of USD 0.85-1.46/lb. A significant decline has taken place from the peak observed in Q2 of 2025, when prices reached 2.84 USD/lb during a price bubble. Although the fair value range had been declining, recent data shows a slight upward adjustment, supporting the forecast of price increases into 2026.
Seasonality plays a crucial role in the pricing of chicken breasts. Typically, prices rise moderately through Q2, peaking in May, before declining in Q3 and Q4. Our forecast incorporates this seasonal pattern.
Recent increases in production costs, which have surpassed the moving average, confirm a short-term uptrend that is expected to influence pricing both in the near and longer term.
Additionally, ongoing bird flu outbreaks in the U.S. during the first half of 2025 have led to the culling of over 30 million chickens. In 2025 alone, 41 separate incidents have been recorded across the country, with projections indicating that such outbreaks are likely to persist into 2026.
In conclusion, while US Chicken Breast Tender Out prices are currently within the fair value range, multiple fundamental factors—such as rising production costs and avian influenza outbreaks—are exerting upward pressure on prices. Based on these trends, we anticipate prices will increase into Q2 of 2026.
Trusted by industry leaders
About Expana
Expana is the world's largest IOSCO-certified agrifood commodity price reporting database
With 36,000+ timely commodity prices and 1,600+ price forecasts across agrifood and industrial markets, you can enhance price visibility throughout your supply chain, reduce costs, lower COGS, and mitigate risk.
Brands by Expana: Mintec Analytics, Urner Barry, Feed Info, Stratégie Grains, Tropical Research Services
Disclaimer
Any forward-looking statements are the views and expectations of the individual market participants. Expana does not have a forward-looking view within this report or associated content. To the extent legally permissible, Expana shall not be liable and disclaims and excludes any and all liability (whether direct or indirect), nor shall Expana be liable in contract, tort (including negligence), misrepresentation (whether innocent or negligent), restitution or otherwise. No information (whether written, electronic or oral) made available herein constitutes or is to be taken as constituting or the giving of investment or financial advice by Expana, or any of its affiliates or their employees to any person, organisation or entity. Any use or reliance on the information and any suggestions, insights or guidance made against such content is entirely at your own risk.
For details on the methodology used to assess the Expana Benchmark Prices, visit this link.