Salmon
Salmon
Price movements (monthly)
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UB Salmon, Farmed, Fillet, Fresh, Chile Atl.,D-Trim, FOB Miami, 3-4 lbs. EBP
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
UB European Salmon, Farmed, Fresh Wholefish, FOB Oslo Norway 4-5 kg EBP
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
Salmon farm 3-6kg FPI NO
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
Chilean Salmon
- In December, Chilean salmon prices grew by 28.8% m-o-m, showing a significant swing from the recent months’ trend.
Summer Production Challenges
- Typically, the harvest level in Chile drops during the summer due to the high mortality risk. February historically is the warmest month and August the coldest, this elevated November suggests earlier or stronger seasonal warming as the region moves toward its summer peak. These current conditions increase the risk of harmful algal blooms (HABs) and bacterial diseases.
New Chilean President
- Jose Antonio Kast (Republican Party) was elected president of Chile in early December. According to market players, a key topic will be the discussion of relocating the salmon site and modifying the Lafkenche Law, which grants coastal Indigenous communities in Chile the right to access and manage coastal marine areas for traditional uses. This impacts the salmon farming industry by creating regulatory uncertainty.Month‑on‑month prices rose due to limited spot availability and supplier inventory constraints from a holiday production slowdown, combined with shipment delays carrying older stock. Tight supply against steady demand drove upward pressure on prices.
Norwegian Salmon
- The Norwegian salmon market was more active as a result of the seasonal increase in demand, in addition to the typically reduced supply due to fewer days of harvest and processing capacity.
- In December, Norwegian salmon prices rose by 9.6% m-o-m. This firm market may be linked to increased purchasing activity during Christmas and New Year holidays, along with supply constraints caused by these holidays, according to industry sources.
Decline in temperatures increase incidence of salmon health problems
- The monthly average sea surface temperature (SST) in Norway’s salmon farm area was warmer for most of 2025. Hotter temperatures commonly increase the incidence of health problems such as sea lice and gill problems. In November 2025, the average SST was 9.3°C, compared to 8.6°C in November 2024. Decreasing temperatures during the winter period, could provide some relief from health issues according to industry participants.
Biomass and Harvest Level in Norway
- According to the Norwegian Directorate of Fisheries, cumulative harvests through November grew by 12.3% YTD. After reaching the peak of the 2025 harvest in August, a seasonal decline was observed. Harvest volume decreased by 14.5% m-o-m and by 2.1% y-o-y. The biomass in seawater is slightly lower by 0.2% compared with November 2024. The current biomass trends may help to stabilize prices.
Salmon
Price drivers
Norwegian Atlantic salmon export reached 103.1 % of 2024 total exports
Export data through November 2025 show that Norwegian Atlantic salmon, including fillets, whole frozen products, and fresh products, accounted for 103.1% of total salmon export volume in 2024.
The shares of frozen and fresh products were similar in 2024, with fresh products representing 97.5% of total salmon exports.
Cumulative exports through November totaled 1,140,691mt, reflecting a 13.2% rise YTD.
Poland, the Netherlands, and France remain the top three markets, with market shares of 16.4%, 8.2%, and 7.7%, respectively. Spain and China continue to show firm YTD growth, with increases of 13.3% and 104.8%, respectively.
Chilean Atlantic salmon export reached 98.3% of 2024 total exports
The cumulative export volume of Chilean Atlantic salmon through November 2025 reached 355,672 mt, including fillets, whole frozen products, and fresh products.
Fresh salmon accounted for 77.9% of total exports. Cumulative exports from January to November increased by 6.7%.
The top three export markets were the US (40.1% share), Brazil (29.6%), and China (8.1%). Exports to these three destinations have increased YTD.
The Russian market experienced the most significant growth among the top 10 destination markets, increasing by 47.9% YTD.
The Atlantic Salmon Americas Feed Cost Index increased by 2.7% y-o-y
The Atlantic Salmon Americas Feed Cost Index rose 1.77 % M-o-M in December, driven mainly by higher M-o-M prices for fish meal +9.4 %, and fish oil +4.9 %. In contrast, soybeans declined by 3.6% M-o-M.
The Atlantic Salmon Europe Feed Cost Index decreased by 1.2 % m-o-m
The Salmon Europe Feed Cost Index increased by 0.6% in December, primarily driven by M-o-M price gains in soybean (+5.6%), fish meal (+9.4%), and fish oil (+4.9%). In contrast, prices for micro ingredients in China and Europe declined M-o-M, with Vitamin D and Methionine falling by 14.6% and 2.8%, respectively.
The shipping cost increased by 14.1% m-o-m to $2,380 per unit
Shipping cost from Shanghai to Rotterdam increased by 14.1% M-o-M to $2,380 per unit in December 2025.
The recent rate increases seem to be a commercial tactical move by carriers rather than evidence of strong underlying demand. Companies are applying gradual hikes to test customer tolerance and try to steady the market. Yet weak volumes and persistent oversupply mean these measures may be short-lived, and downward pressure is likely to return as soon as market conditions allow, according to a source.
Salmon
Price forecast
UB Salmon,Farmed,Fillet,Fresh, Chile Atl.,D-Trim,FOB Miami,3-4 lbs. EBP
- Chilean salmon prices have been rising in line with our forecast, increasing by more than 23% since late November to USD 6.10/lb.
- Seasonal trends show that prices typically increase from now into a January or February peak. This means the upside potential is now somewhat limited, especially as prices are slightly overvalued according to our regression-estimated range. Therefore, a short-term pullback is expected in Q1/26.
- Technical indicators show an overbought RSI with negative divergence, signalling a potential peak leading to a temporary price decline.
- A drop in Chilean supply since August may limit how far prices fall, making the expected decline likely temporary.
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