Shrimp
Shrimp
Price movements (monthly)
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UB Shrimp, Farm, Lat Am, HLSO, White, 21-25
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
UB Shrimp, Farm, Asia, Raw P&D, T-On, White, 16-20
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
UB EU Shrimp, Vannamei, Lat Am, 40-50 HOSO, CFR Europe, NW
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
UB EU Shrimp, Vannamei, Asian, 16-20 raw PND, CFR Europe, NW
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
L. vannamei to US: Weakness spillover from HLSO to peeled
- After rapid price increases through mid-year, peeled shrimp values stabilized recently, while HLSO prices continue to pull back due to long inventories and waning demand.
- Distributors remain focused on peeled product, yet weaker prices are starting to affect this category. HLSO 21–25 averages shed 4.2% as supply continues to outweigh demand; peeled prices have eased only marginally.
- Uncertainty surrounds Q1 demand, as buyers express concern over potential contraction caused by higher price levels—well above April’s pre-tariff announcement.
- Indonesian supply is returning gradually, adding to overall pressure. Despite firm replacement costs overseas, US prices have moved up sharply since spring but are now undergoing a temporary correction.
L. vannamei to EU-UK
- HOSO vannamei prices slightly declined: Benchmark prices for HOSO vannamei 40– 50 count shipped from Latin America to Europe averaged 4.84 USD/kg in December. This is 3.2% below November’s average and 14.3% below the same period last year. As typical for this time of year, the market softened amid weaker demand in major markets, including Europe. Moreover, prices were inflated in Ecuador last year by energy shortages that disrupted shrimp production.
- Decline for Asian peeled vann: The average December price for peeled-and-deveined vannamei 16– 20 count from Asia to Europe fell 2.7% M-o-M and 7.9% Y-o-Y. This modest oversupply stems from the seasonal lull in demand and reduced inquiries from U.S. buyers to Indian suppliers, following the tariffs imposed since July.
Shrimp
Supply trends
Ecuador Supply
Ecuador exported 115,472 metric tons of shrimp in October 2025, representing a 35.4% year-on-year increase.
Ecuador returned to a robust production pace that met rising global demand in 2025, driving strong export performance in October as the EU and the US prepared for the year-end consumption peak. This was supported by generally stable export prices and increased demand for peeled shrimp from the US, while Indian suppliers faced higher tariffs in H2.
Although Ecuador’s peeled vannamei production capacity has yet to fully meet demand, producers are actively working to boost productivity in the PND category to satisfy global market needs and outperform Asian competitors.
India Supply
Indian exports of warm-water shrimp surged to 75,576 metric tons, marking a 13.4% increase in October 2025 from September 2025 and a 6.4% rise year-over-year.
Following three strong months from May to July 2025, August saw a sharp decline, but sales recovered robustly in September and especially in October. This rebound reflects improved shrimp availability with the start of the new season and an additional boost from the second crop.
Furthermore, India benefited from stronger demand in key markets, notably the US and EU–UK regions, as they prepared deliveries for the year-end peak consumption period.
Export prices largely remained stable as India sought to maintain competitiveness in the global market.
Vietnam Supply
Despite production being significantly disrupted by adverse weather, including heavy rains and floods, Vietnam delivered strong export results over the four months from July to October. With an average monthly volume of 33,426 MT, this period alone accounted for 48% of total year‑to‑date exports, offsetting the dip in sales seen last winter and bringing overall volumes back in line with last year.
From January to October, exports were up 1.2% in volume and 9.0% in value (USD), with none of the top five destination markets posting a decline in value.
However, industry contacts in Vietnam remain cautious. The preliminary US anti‑dumping duty decision expected in Q1, coupled with increasingly stringent compliance requirements in major markets, could signal a turning point for the sector.
Indonesia Supply
Indonesia’s October 2025 shrimp exports to the US dropped sharply to 9,000 MT, less than half the monthly average, following expanded FDA automatic detention orders affecting most major plants.
While limited shipments have resumed from certified facilities, automatic detention policies remain in place for a significant portion of Indonesia’s industry, and November preliminary data point to even lower volumes.
The sector’s vulnerability is underscored by its reliance on the US market, and farmgate prices have now fallen to the lowest levels seen since October 2023.
Shrimp
Price forecast
UB Shrimp, HLSO, Farm Raised, Asian, White, 21-25 Count EBP
- Tariffs had a considerable impact on Shrimp prices in 2025, particularly on product from Asia, where higher rates have been applied, including 50% on India. Towards the end of the year, we saw some of the price increases erased amid weak seasonal demand.
- That seasonal weakness typically persists into the middle of Q1 2026, indicating we could see some further declines in the near term. The regression has been falling since May 2025, exerting downward pressure and supporting the current price decline.
- From a technical perspective, Asian HLSO 21-25 count is in a short-term downtrend, but a bullish divergence may signal that downward pressure is subsiding.
UB Shrimp, HLSO, Farm Raised, Latin America, White, 41-50 Count EBP
- More favourable tariff rates led to more modest price increases on Latin American shrimp compared with product from Asia.
- That said, we still saw a seasonal decline towards the end of 2025, and that price softness is expected to persist through the middle of Q1 2026. Though most of the short-term decline has likely already occurred.
- Technical analysis indicates that the HLSO Latin America 41-50 count is in a short-term downtrend, but a bullish divergence may be forming, potentially signalling waning near-term downward pressure.
UB Shrimp, Farm Raised, Asian, Raw P&D, Tail-On, White, 16-20 Count EBP
- P&D Shrimp from Asia experienced a sharper price increase compared with HLSO due to the inability of importers to easily pivot from higher tariff nations. As a result, seasonal price weakness has also been more subdued.
- Seasonal weakness until the middle of Q1 2026 is expected though, although price declines are expected to be relatively small, which is supported by our fundamental regression model.
- From a technical perspective, Asian P&D 16-20 count is in a short-term sideways trend and technically overvalued but if tariff rates remain higher, notably on India, that may remain the case.
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