Prices

Cocoa prices fell in June in both London and New York. London ended the month at £5,939 on the second position (U25), down -£514 (-8% lower). In New York, prices fell by -$220 (-2%), ending the month at $9,000.

Structure eased in London, with N25/N26 moving from +£1,019 to +806. In New York structure also eased with N25/N26 moving from +$2,014 to +$806. The New York premium over London increased with the U25 arb moving from +$525 to +$847 (New York – London).

Origin sales

The forward selling state marketing boards in West Africa increased the pace of forward sales in June. However, sales for the 2025/26 crop remain well below normal for the time of the year. Therefore, there will be an unusually large amount of origin selling for the market to absorb between now and the end of the crop year if the origins are to sell sufficient cocoa before the start of the season to establish a fixed farmer price for the main crops.

Grindings

During June cocoa butter ratios fell by 25 ratio points to 2.25 times the futures price, the lowest since August 2023.

This is a sign of weak demand from the chocolate industry which makes us more pessimistic about prospects for grindings in Q2.

We have reduced our 2024/25 grindings estimate for Ivory Coast to 660,000 tonnes to reflect the likely lack of availability of beans in the second half of the crop year. Along with other smaller changes to our consumption estimates, this reduces our 2024/25 global grindings estimate to 4,700,000 tonnes, -3.3% yoy. If confirmed, this would represent the weakest global grindings since 2017/18.

Stocks

US warehouse stocks increased by +12,400 tonnes in June to 139,500 tonnes, a 10-month high. Stocks are down -37,000 tonnes yoy.

In Europe, stocks in exchange-approved warehouses were unchanged in June at 61,400 tonnes. This is -12.000 tonnes lower yoy.

COT

Funds reduced their net long cocoa position in June, covering 14,000 lots during the month.

Funds ended the month with a net long position of 30,700 lots over both markets.