US Turkey
Current market conditions as of 04/29/2025:
Most key lines within the US turkey market continue their upward price trajectory as historically low hatch and slaughter levels coincide with seasonally active demand. The supply side constraints are primarily driven by disease as Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), Avian Metapneumovirus (AMPV)and Laryngotracheitis (LT), continue to run rampant in farms throughout the nation. Other supply indicators such as cold storage inventories paint a similarly bleak picture for prospective buyers as most items remain at year over year (YOY) and 5-year lows. With competing proteins such as beef and chicken rising in value as well, many retailers have pushed to feature ground turkey more heavily. This has resulted in items such as tom drums and tom breast meat to be pursued with even more of a seasonal pull than typical. Values for both lines remain in an upward track. The fresh and frozen tom drum Expana Benchmark Prices (EBP) currently sit at all time high levels.
From an export perspective, the latest USDA figures continue to show significant reductions in overall tonnage in both month over month (MOM) and YOY figures. Much of this is due to the exceedingly limited supplies available, but HPAI-related trade restrictions are also at play. This severely limits the industry from moving products to countries with strict policies in place, particularly in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region. That’s not to say product flow has stopped entirely, in fact, total volume to Hong Kong in February was over 135% higher than the previous year. Other countries in the region such as Japan, Tawain and the Philippines saw notable declines.
Forecasting insight
US-Turkey prices have rallied very strongly since Q4 of 2024, a significant development in line with the Expana’s forecast of increasing pricing.
Annually, inventories peak in Q3 with remarkable reliability and decline into Q4. A projected 8.68% decline in US inventories further supports the 2025 increase in pricing.
Inventories in “Weeks of Consumption” are also forecast to decline from 2.22 weeks to 2.07 weeks towards the end of 2025. A significant decline was seen in “weeks of consumption” from December 2024, with pricing reacting strongly and increasing from November 2024. Inventories in “weeks of consumption” provide a reliable and impactful reaction to price when significant declines are seen.
Pricing of US-Turkey in Q4 of 2024 was also low compared to the overall fundamental perspectives. However, upward pricing pressure was building, creating a sense of anticipation. For example, in Q2 of 2024, eggs in incubators reached an all-time low of just 22.81 million eggs, resulting in just 19.64 million poults hatched.
US-Turkey prices can also follow a tendency for seasonal increases into Q2 annually. This is traditionally followed by a decline into late Q2, which can further increase pricing into Q3, before pricing declines into Q4. As stated, this is a tendency that US-Turkey can follow.
The overall fundamental perspective remains upward for US-Turkey Breast/Young Tom. The forecast for 2025 is for prices to increase into Q3, followed by declines into Q4 2025 and Q1 of 2026.
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