Europe Valentine's Day Index 2025 Summary

Expana’s Europe Valentine’s Day Chocolate Index increased significantly by 101.3% y-o-y and 1.7% m-o-m in January 2025, primarily driven by the surge in cocoa prices offsetting the decline in sugar prices. Cocoa bean prices experienced an extraordinary rise of 144.5% y-o-y, driven by poor weather and smaller crops in the previous year as well as firm consumer demand that is only recently starting to ease as the high prices trickle through to the retail level. Several market sources have told Expana that retail sales of chocolate in Q4 2024 fell by approximately 10-15% y-o-y, and cocoa grindings figures in major consuming regions also eased slightly in Q4.

There were mixed price movements in other key commodities within the Valentine’s Index. Strawberry prices also surged by 51.1% y-o-y. SMP prices rose by 3.5% y-o-y. Meanwhile, vanilla prices declined by 9% y-o-y, and sugar prices dropped 30.9% y-o-y. Overall, however, the index was shaped by soaring cocoa costs, with cocoa being the largest cost in the manufacturing of chocolate. With several large chocolate makers experiencing a dip in sales in recent weeks, the combination of cocoa bean and product supply constraints, weather and disease uncertainty, and flagging consumer demand are expected to remain key price drivers for cocoa, all of which could lead to a very different story for next year’s Valentine’s season.