Conclusion
Expana’s 2026 European Valentine’s Day Chocolate Index declined 51.9% YOY and 3.5% MOM to €2,714.9/mt in January 2026, reflecting a broad easing across key inputs.
Chocolate Index January 2026
Year-over-year Change
Month-over-month Change
Cocoa led the retreat, with ICE London spot futures averaging £3,829/mt (€4,414/mt) in January 2026, down 57.2% YOY as improved weather in West Africa, growing production in Latin America, and demand destruction following the high prices of 2024 led to an 8% increase in global production in 2024/25 and a larger global surplus for the first time since 2020/21.
Western European sugar fell 21.9% y‑o‑y to €410/mt, supported by high sugar content in beets that offset lower planted area and left the EU market largely balanced.
EU skimmed milk powder prices were lower on the year as prices averaged €2,111.43/mt in January 2026 after elevated milk intakes and rising production left the market oversupplied through much of 2025, though availability showed signs of stabilizing early in 2026.
Vanilla prices also eased, pressured by renewed Madagascan exports and heavy destination stocks, while Spanish strawberry prices rose modestly YOY amid adverse winter weather in Huelva.
Taken together, the substantial YOY declines in cocoa, sugar, and SMP point to materially lower input costs for chocolate manufacturers for Valentine’s Day 2026, a sharp reversal from the supply constraints and elevated costs that defined the previous season.
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