2026 Coffee Outlook
Commentary by Sammy Rolls
Late Q4 coffee trade remains dominated by Vietnam’s weather disruptions.
After Typhoon Kalmaegi and repeated heavy rains, fresh flooding in central provinces has left some low-lying farms in Dak Lak under water and traders warn that harvest progress could slow as soils remain saturated and more rain is expected. Brazil’s arabica belt has benefited from mostly favorable rains, although the market remains sensitive to possible flowering stress as trees continue to recover from earlier heat episodes. With Vietnamese output risks still elevated, sentiment stays cautious into year end.
Early 2026 drivers will depend upon Brazil’s weather pattern and Vietnam’s recovery from the typhoon, as well as ensuing prolonged heavy rains and flooding.
If Brazil receives timely, widespread rainfall, arabica availability could strengthen into Q2, potentially easing values on ICE Arabica Mar-26 and May-26. The US removal of the 40% tariff on Brazilian coffee is expected to accelerate shipments, with beans previously held in bonded warehouses likely to move quickly to roasters.
The removal of the US tariffs on Brazilian coffee may soften US retail prices, which rose as much as 40% earlier in the year.
Upside risk in robusta remains tied to Vietnam, where any further harvesting delays could keep ICE Robusta Jan-26 and Mar-26 supported despite improving Brazilian supply.
Coffee Forecast
Commentary by Amalie Egedal
The rally which led to coffee prices increasing roughly 45% since August was partly caused by a surge in speculative positions amid uncertainty about the implementation of the EUDR and high US tariffs on Brazil. The policies have since been delayed and removed, respectively, which is expected to alleviate physical tightness. Coffee prices are above our estimated price range, indicating they are too high and will need to decline soon.
Our analysis points to a peak in Q4, followed by a decline into 2026.
A bearish reversal is expected due to a projected production surplus and rise in inventories. However, the decline has not yet been confirmed by the technical signals, and this is something to monitor.
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