Butter Price Trends
Butter
Price movements
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Butter unsalted exw EU EBP
Month-on-month Change
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Butter unsalted 82% exw UK EBP
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Butter grade AA CME US
Month-on-month Change
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Butter auction fas NZ/AU
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Anhydrous milk fat NZX NZ
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Key Takeaways
- The assessment for Unsalted Butter EXW European Union [Expana Code: J116] was €3,900/MT on March 31, down €500/MT MOM, as Easter pre-buying ended and buyers adopted a wait-and-see approach amid ample spot supply and elevated YOY stock levels.
- EU butter production remains robust, supported by elevated milk intakes and strong milk fat levels; however, cheese and whey valorization continues to outpace butter returns, channeling milk volumes away from butter..
- The Expana Benchmark Price (EBP) for US butter [Expana Code: SDBN] was $1.91/lb on March 26, up $0.27/lb MOM. Prices rallied to $1.99/lb in Week 11( March 19) before retreating on increased cream availability and softening export demand.
- US butter production hit a 5-year high in January at 231.4 million lbs (+6.1% YOY), driven by ample cream supplies from elevated milk components and rising mozzarella and low-fat cheese production pushing more butterfat into the market.
- US cold storage fell 16.9% YOY in February to 115.1 million lbs despite strong production, reflecting continued export demand as US butterfat remains competitively priced against EU and Oceania alternatives.
- Global butter production is forecast by the USDA at 12.62 million MT in 2026 (+2.4% YOY), led by India (+3.4%) and the US (+6.9%), while EU output is expected to decline 1.4%.
EU butter prices decreased in March, driven by weak demand.
- The Unsalted Butter EXW European Union [Expana Code: J116] price was assessed at €3,900/MT on March 31, down €500/MT MOM.
- EU Butter (EXW)EU butter opened the period on a firm note, rising 4% to €4,625/mt in Week 11 (March 12) amid steady retail and foodservice demand and wide regional price variation, before reversing sharply to €4,350/mt in Week 12 (march 19) as Easter pre-buying came to an end and buyers adopted a wait-and-see approach.
- The sell-off deepened in Week 13 (march 26), with prices falling a further 9% to €3,950/mt as ample spot supply, elevated YOY stock levels, and the approaching peak production season reinforced the weak sentiment across the EU.
Market Sentiment
Softer Spot Market Activity
- Market players expect demand to remain steady to slightly weaker after the Easter holiday period (3–6 April), with little likelihood of significant demand spikes. Several sources indicated that buyers are focusing on short-term contracts in the first half of 2026 to maintain flexibility ahead of the milk flush in the second quarter.
- While short-term contracts remain popular for the first half of 2026, industry sources reported elevated interest in longer-term agreements for the fourth quarter of 2026 and the first quarter of 2027.
Sufficient Supply
- Market sources anticipate that fresh butter production will remain robust as milk intakes are expected to increase further into the season, supported by elevated milk fat levels. As raw material supplies surpass expectations, processors are likely to allocate more milk to butter production. However, strong cheese and whey valorization, with returns outpacing those of butter and SMP, is expected to support the cheese and whey production stream over butter.
- EU butter stock levels remain elevated compared to the previous year, though strong buying interest during February has reduced available stocks. With fresh production anticipated to outgrow demand, stocks are expected to build further, according to market sources.
US butter prices were mixed during the month
- US butter prices increased in March 2026. The Expana Benchmark Price (EBP) for butter [Expana Code: SDBN] was last assessed at $1.91/lb on March 26th, up $0.27/lb on the month.
- Butter prices climbed in Week 11 (March 12), reaching $1.99/lb, as stock levels came in below market expectations despite elevated production, with international demand rising to support the rally. The market turned bearish in Week 12 (March 19), with prices slipping to $1.95/lb as increased cream availability weighed on values and export opportunities declined amid trade tensions with the Middle East.
- The decline continued into Week 13 (March 26), with Grade AA settling at $1.91/lb, driven by ample milk fat supplies and strong production schedules despite softening prices.
Market Sentiment
Strong Production
- Butter production remained strong during the month, with ample cream supplies supporting butter churners.
- Butter production recently hit a 5-year high in January ahead of spring flush season.
- Elevated milk components and rising demand for mozzarella and other low-fat cheeses have further supported increased supplies in the market, keeping butter production running unseasonably strong.
Mixed Buying Interest
- US exports of butterfat have more than doubled in 2025 and have remained strong into 2026 due to a global pricing advantage.
- Regions like Europe, MENA, and Central America have significantly increased imports of US butterfat products. Concerns around MENA exports remain as conflicts in the region continue to restrict imports.
- Domestic demand remains steady-to-weak as consumer preference shifts to health and wellness products over high-fat options.
- Foodservice data recently rebounded slightly with the announcement of several meal-deal options creating low-cost options for consumers.
Butter
Price drivers
Logistics
The Global Shipping 40-foot Container Composite Index rose about 20% MOM in end-March to $2,279/unit, marking four consecutive weeks of increases. Following US and Israeli military action in Iran, energy prices spiked, prompting shipping carriers to apply emergency fuel surcharges to freight rates, driving higher spot rates on Asia-Europe and Transpacific routes.
Market sources expect rates to remain elevated if regional volatility persists. Carriers continue to await demand growth following the Chinese Lunar New Year, which has been slow to materialize.
Feed Costs
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe continue to underpin market sentiment, sustaining a risk premium across global grain markets. The strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz is increasingly reverberating through fertilizer markets, adding a secondary layer of support to prices.
In the EU, market participants report that wheat crop conditions currently appear favorable, with development slightly ahead of normal due to generally supportive growing conditions across key producing regions. CBOT wheat prices have shown relative strength in March, supported by mounting concerns over Hard Red Winter wheat prospects in the southern US Plains.
Global corn markets are increasingly shaped by input cost pressures and shifting acreage expectations, with fertilizer availability emerging as a key factor influencing both planting decisions and yield potential across major producing regions.
Electricity Prices
Electricity prices in the US and EU changed marginally on average for the month, though volatility throughout March was high, particularly in the EU. Nevertheless, market sources continue to monitor the situation closely, recognizing that risks of electricity price increases remain high.
Butter
Price forecast
Butter EU
The price of butter EU has come down a bit recently, likely due to the milk flush period we have just entered. This is when cows are let back out on the fields to grass and when most cattle have their offspring. This pushes the overall milk production up, which in terms should lead to lower production costs for dairy, butter included. However, we did already see prices come down quite a bit in the last part of 2025 and into 2026 due to higher-than-normal milk production for the period. Therefore, the effect of the current milk flush may be smaller compared to other years. We do expect that prices will increase a bit in Q due to the current price level.
This increase will also be affected by the current war in the Middle East, which is pushing for higher energy costs. Additionally, freezer storage is getting limited, which impacts the amount of butter you can store. Therefore, production may slow down to avoid overproduction. This is supported by the supply/demand balance, which is expected to come down in 2026, which may push for higher prices. Additionally, we have seen dairy producers start to increase their payout to dairy farmers ever so slightly. This will of course impact the price of all dairy products, not just butter.
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