Coffee Price Trends
Coffee
Price movements
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ICE #11 FUTURES PRICES (MAY ‘26)
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
Key Takeaways
- Spot arabica prices in New York were fairly stable throughout March, rising from 288.35 c/lb on March 2 to 298.35c/lb on March 31, an increase of 3.4%.
- Spot robusta prices in London fell significantly throughout March, falling from $3,842/metric ton (MT) on March 2 to $3,493/MT on March 31, a decrease of 9.5%.
- April sits at a critical junction between late-cycle 2025/26 marketing activity and the early build-up of 2026/27 supply expectations. In Brazil, farmer selling behavior remains a key variable, with forward sales still below historical averages despite a recent increase in spot activity.
- Arabica certified stocks continue to build as coffee is moving from origin to the board. In New York, arabica certified stocks increased by +47,300 bags in March 2026 to 557,500 bags, +10% higher than end of February, but -0.2 million bags lower year over year (YOY). While coffee stocks originating in Honduras built by +44,000 bags, stocks of Brazil fell this month by -7,500 bags.
- Funds reduced their net long position in London by -6,142 lots last week, bringing them to a net long position of 3,997 lots, the lowest in two weeks.
Disclaimer:
Expana’s most recent coffee assessment: April 9th:
Expana assessed its Expana Benchmark Prices (EBP) for Coffee Arabica org diff HN (organic SHG) at USc 38/lb, unchanged from the previous assessment. Price points were received in line with the previous assessed value, and the price was assessed as unchanged. No data were excluded from the assessment.
Arabica prices in London increased moderately in March
- Spot arabica prices in New York were fairly stable throughout March, rising from 288.35 c/lb on March 2 to 298.35c/lb on March 31, an increase of 3.4%.
- Spot arabica coffee prices reached a monthly low of 286.95 c/lb on March 3 and a monthly high of 317.85 c/lb on March 24.
- Arabica shipment registrations from Brazil remained below expectations in March, prompting a review of recent export trends. One contributing factor appears to be slower-than-usual farmer selling, with elevated on-farm stocks compared to historical levels.
Market Sentiment
Robusta prices in London fell significantly in March
- Spot robusta prices in London fell significantly throughout March, falling from $3,842/MT on March 2 to $3,493/MT on March 31, a decrease of 9.5%
- Spot robusta coffee prices reached a monthly low of $3,419/MT on March 30 and a monthly high of $3,842/MT on March 2.
- The weather across the Central Highlands of Vietnam in the last 10 days of March was seasonally dry, with some light showers recorded in the Dak Nong province. The cumulative precipitation since the beginning of calendar year 2026 is -1% below normal in Dak Lak, +56% above normal in Dak Nong, +17% above normal in Lam Dong, and +25% above normal in Gia Lai.
Market Sentiment
Coffee
Price drivers
Weather patterns and ENSO development
Brazil conditions remain broadly favorable, supported by improved soil moisture built up during Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, ahead of the main 2026/27 harvest cycle.
Vietnam and parts of Indonesia are expected to remain in dry season conditions through April, with seasonal rainfall onset anticipated in May; irrigation remains a key agronomic focus.
ENSO remains in a neutral monitoring phase with no strong disruptive signal currently indicated across major coffee origins.
No abrupt weather disruptions are observed across key origins at this stage, though ENSO evolution in H2 2026 remains a watch point for rainfall distribution, flowering consistency, and bean fill development across both arabica and robusta regions.
Conflict in the Middle East
Middle East instability will continue to influence coffee through energy, logistics, and financial channels rather than direct production links.
Crude oil price fluctuations tied to regional tensions continue to affect downstream cost structures, including fertilizer production, trucking, and ocean freight rates.
Shipping routes and insurance premia remain sensitive to regional risk perceptions across key maritime corridors connecting Asia, East Africa, and Europe, with shifts in risk pricing affecting trade economics and shipment timing.
Middle East developments also feed into broader inflation expectations and interest rate outlooks in major consuming markets, contributing to currency volatility and shifts in commodity market positioning.
The transmission mechanism remains indirect at this stage; however, until clearer signs of de-escalation emerge, regional instability continues to act as a source of background volatility across energy-linked costs and global trade logistics.
Production cycle and forward supply flow
Brazil farmer selling remains below historical averages despite a recent uptick in spot activity; early Conilon and initial arabica volumes are expected to gradually increase physical flow as Q2 progresses.
Vietnam and Indonesia are in the final phase of the dry season, with no widespread production stress reported; irrigation intensity and localized moisture remain key for maintaining yield potential into the upcoming cycle.
Colombia's flowering window remains active through late Q2, with April rainfall critical for supporting flowering consolidation and early cherry development.
Central America and Africa are transitioning from peak harvest toward completion and commercialisation, with focus on the balance between origin holdings and committed export volumes.
April is expected to see gradual rather than abrupt shifts in physical availability, with forward flows increasingly shaped by early 2026/27 crop dynamics rather than residual 2025/26 tightness.
Coffee
Price forecast
Coffee Arabica
The Coffee Arabica price has been trading sideways since late February – a sign of stabilisation following a significant sell-off in the final months of 2025 and early 2026. The short-term technical indicators support the sideways trend, notably the RSI shows that the market lacks momentum in either direction. Looking further ahead, the risk remains tilted to the downside. The medium- and long-term technical indicators confirm that the market is in a downtrend, meaning the price is likely to continue lower as we move into the second half of Q2.
In the near term, further uplift remains a possibility, though. Technical support has been established near USc 280/lb, and as long as the market respects this level, the price may trade back up or even slightly above recent highs.
The market is currently balancing the prospect of a large 2026/2027 crop against falling certified stocks, a stronger Brazilian real, and the uncertainty brought on by the war in Iran. Coffee started flowing to the exchange in early February and kept rising at a steady pace through mid-March. The market appeared to front-run this increase and stabilised while stocks were still climbing. The recent drawdown in certified stocks limits the downside potential for prices in the near term, and adding to this, the strong rally in the Brazilian real against the dollar is currently discouraging exports.
Still, it is our view that the expectation of a large crop in the 2026/2027 marketing year will trigger another sell-off as the Brazilian harvest moves further along.
The war between the USA and Iran remains a wildcard that may continue to underpin the market. Fertiliser trade out of the gulf region is currently disrupted, and the market is continuously pricing in the risk to future supply.
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