Corn Price Trends
Corn
Price movements
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Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
Key Takeaways
Geopolitical risk and input cost pressure drive renewed volatility:
- Corn markets experienced renewed volatility in March, as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe continued to shape sentiment and sustain a risk premium across the global grain complex. According to market players, prices are expected to remain firm in the near term, supported by elevated freight, fertiliser and energy costs. However, participants remain cautious, noting that any escalation or prolongation of conflict could begin to impact trade flows and influence planting decisions.
Brazil Safrinha planting progress remains supportive:
- In Brazil, second corn crop (Safrinha) planting is around 92% complete, slightly behind last year but still ahead of the long-term average. Weather conditions have been largely favourable, supporting crop development despite some regional differences.
Market Sentiment
Geopolitical tensions and input costs:
- Global corn markets are increasingly shaped by input cost pressures and shifting acreage expectations, with fertiliser availability emerging as a key factor influencing both planting decisions and yield potential across major producing regions. A dominant macro driver is the trajectory of energy prices, which market participants view as the primary influence on the market at present. Corn’s close linkage to the energy complex, particularly via ethanol production, means that volatility in energy markets is directly impacting price expectations. According to market sources, this dynamic has, in the current environment, taken precedence over traditional agricultural fundamentals, heightening the market’s sensitivity to geopolitical developments, particularly in the Middle East.
The US planting intentions:
- Market attention is increasingly centred on US farmers’ planting intentions, which are expected to provide clearer direction for corn markets in the coming weeks. Urea prices in the Gulf have risen by more than $100, potentially increasing input costs for producers. However, some traders note that a significant share of fertiliser demand has already been covered, which may limit the impact on planting decisions.
Corn
Price drivers
US
In the US, corn prices continued to find underlying support from elevated fertiliser costs and uncertainty ahead of the upcoming USDA Plantings report. As spring planting begins, market participants are increasingly focused on how high input costs may alter farmer behaviour. Corn, being more fertiliser-intensive than competing crops such as soybeans, is particularly exposed. As a result, there is a growing expectation of acreage switching towards soybeans, alongside the possibility of reduced fertiliser application rates.
Brazil
In Brazil, progress of the second corn crop (Safrinha) has reached approximately 92%, slightly behind last year’s pace but still above the historical average. Weather conditions have generally been favourable, supporting crop development despite some regional variability. Current production estimates for the Safrinha crop range between 105.5 and 114.5 million mt, with total corn output projected at 131-139 million mt, according to market sources. However, input availability remains a key uncertainty. According to market sources, Russia’s temporary ban on ammonium nitrate exports has the potential to significantly impact Brazil, which is estimated to account for 40-45% of Russian fertiliser exports. While some exemptions may be introduced, the disruption to normal trade flows introduces an additional layer of risk to input supply chains, particularly at a critical stage of crop development. This could ultimately influence yield outcomes if shortages persist or costs remain elevated.
Argentina
In Argentina, recent weather developments have provided some relief to earlier concerns. The last two weeks in March, above-average rainfall and cooler temperatures have significantly improved soil moisture conditions across key growing regions, particularly in Cordoba. This has alleviated drought stress and stabilised crop conditions. However, not all areas have benefited equally, with the northeastern Pampas continuing to experience relatively warm and dry weather, highlighting ongoing regional disparities.
According to market players, as of March 20, corn has been harvested on 13% of the area.
Electricity
Electricity prices increase following Gulf turmoil
Electricity prices increased throughout March, up by 86% MOM at the end of the month, as Middle East turmoil drove up energy costs.
Logistics
Shipping carriers apply emergency surcharges
The Global Shipping 40-foot Container Composite Index increased by about 20% MOM in end-March, to $2,279/unit, marking four consecutive weeks of increases. Following the start of US and Israeli military action in Iran, energy prices have spiked, leading shipping carriers to apply emergency fuel surcharges to freight rates. Market sources expect rates to remain elevated in the short term if the volatility and regional disruption persist. On routes outside of the region, sources state that operations remain relatively normal. Carriers continue to wait for an uptick in demand following the Chinese Lunar New Year, which has been slow to materialize.
Crude Oil and Natural Gas
Crude oil prices up on geopolitical tensions
The price of Brent crude oil increased throughout March, with continued military action in the Middle East fueling the uptrend. The prolonged de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global crude oil production flows, is tightening supply in key destination markets.
Fertilizer
Fertilizer prices remain elevated
NPK fertilizer prices stood at $683.39/MT as of March 27, 2026, up by 20% YOY. Sources report that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has significantly affected fertilizer flows.
Corn
Price forecast
Maize / Corn
CME corn prices have been in an uptrend since August 2025, rising in line with Expana’s forecast. Our models continue to point to an upside risk with a potential intermediate peak in Q2 2026. Fundamental indicators highlight upside risk, with the regression model suggesting prices remain significantly undervalued, creating upward pressure. Seasonal patterns further support this view, as corn prices typically peak in April or May, raising the likelihood of further price increases in the near term.
Current price action is being largely driven by an increase in speculative long positions and concerns about a tighter supply later in 2026. These fears stem from disruptions linked to the US–Iran conflict and restrictions around the Strait of Hormuz, which have triggered sharp increases in energy and fertiliser costs.
Technical signals indicate CME corn prices are in an uptrend, with the uptrend confirmed by the moving average and MACD. This favour further upside potential in the short term, with some price volatility potentially driven by seasonal movements.
According to the USDA, the initial 2026/27 corn outlook points to reduced production and lower ending stocks, which poses an upside risk for corn prices. This is assuming normal planting progress and favourable summer weather. Weather remains a significant driver and wild card for corn prices, leaving room for further price increases if conditions deteriorate.
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