Methionine Price Trends
Methionine
Price movements
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Pig ddwt grade S exw EU EBP [BW56]
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
Global amino acid markets firmed sharply in March, led by methionine on supply disruption and oil-linked cost pressure.
Key Takeaways
Asia
- Methionine prices surged through March, supported by supply disruptions, rising oil-linked raw-material costs and tight spot availability. FOB China climbed from $2.30-2.40/kg at the start of March to $5.00-6.20/kg by month-end, while domestic prices rose from CNY 20.00-20.50/kg to CNY 45.00-50.00/kg. The market was heavily influenced by feedstock shortages linked to the Middle East conflict, including sulfur-based intermediates, methanol and propylene, as well as the partial shutdown at Evonik’s Singapore plant. By late March, momentum had started to cool slightly, but prices remained at historically elevated levels and supply stayed tight.
North America
- Methionine prices edged higher during March, with the assessed range moving from $2.90/kg to $3.00/kg to $3.00/kg to $3.10/kg by month-end. New antidumping duty rates released on March 12 added a 7.11% duty on liquid MHA produced by Adisseo in Spain.
Europe
- Spot prices firmed up in March, settling at their highest level in 10 years and up by over 84% compared to end of February. Reduced offering from many producers, following the start of the conflict in the Middle East, have been cited as key driver, as sources report tight availability of material.
South America
- Methionine prices in South America surged in March, with the midpoint moving from $2.65/kg to $5.58/kg, reaching its highest level ever recorded by Expana. Market participants cited Evonik’s Singapore force majeure as the main driver leading some sellers to withdraw offers and others deliver only to regular customers.
Market Sentiment
- Asian amino acid markets are expected to remain firm in the near term, as supply disruptions, limited producer availability and elevated oil-linked input costs continue to support prices. Methionine is likely to remain the most volatile market while uncertainty around delayed deliveries and raw-material supply persists, although participants expect prices could correct sharply once upstream constraints ease
Methionine
Price drivers
Soybean Meal
Crude oil spillover supporting soybean meal prices outside of China
Soybean prices have been supported from spillover from crude oil prices due to the US-Iran war. Currently, this has superseded many of the bearish fundamentals in the soybean market. Market players say that as long as crude oil is volatile the soybean complex will follow as oilseeds are more like energy commodities due to biofuel mandates.
Maize (Corn)
Biofuel mandate providing partial demand anchor amid abundant supplies
The Trump administration’s finalization of biofuel mandates, 26.81 billion RINs for 2026 and 27.02 billion for 2027, with large refiners forced to make up 70% of waived volumes, provided a partial demand anchor, but abundant domestic supplies and cash markets that have struggled to follow futures capped upside.
Hog
EU supply expected to decrease on lower slaughter numbers
Supply across the EU is expected to decrease, driven by lower slaughter numbers, though higher slaughter weights are anticipated to partially offset the decline, according to industry sources. The March Hogs and Pigs report showed total US hog and pig inventory down 1.0% from the prior quarter, while slightly higher year over year at 74.32 million head.
Poultry
Environmental constraints limiting EU production expansion
According to industry reports, in several countries, including the Netherlands, Belgium, and Germany, environmental constraints, particularly aimed at reducing nitrogen emissions, are expected to limit production expansion in calendar year 2026. U.S. chicken headcount trended higher throughout the month, supported by ongoing YOY advances in hatchery and slaughter data.
Electricity
US up on natural gas; EU down on lower heating demand
Electricity prices in the US ticked upwards throughout March, and sources believe higher natural gas prices are pushing electricity prices to elevated levels. However, prices in Europe fell due to lower heating demand.
Logistics
Overcapacity continuing to weigh on spot rates
The Global Shipping 40-foot Container Composite Index decreased by about 9.9% m-o-m in end-February, to $1,899/unit, after seven consecutive weeks of decline. According to market sources, overcapacity continues to weigh on prices, with spot rates on Transpacific and Asia-Europe routes continuing to decrease.
Crude Oil and Natural Gas
Middle East conflict driving crude and LNG higher
Crude oil rose markedly throughout March, with historically volatile price movement observed on a day-to-day basis. The significant price increase throughout the month is attributable to the ongoing Middle East conflict, with some oil facilities targeted in the region. Natural gas prices in Europe moved up significantly throughout the month as players expressed supply concerns following persistent shipping problems and missile strikes on liquified natural gas (LNG) facilities in Qatar, an important exporter to Europe.
Macroeconomic Environment
US inflation steady at 2.4%; Eurozone accelerating to 1.9%
In the US, inflation was 2.4% on an annualized basis in February, unchanged from January. Food inflation accelerated 0.4% MOM, with an annualized increase of 3.1%, while energy inflation rose 0.5% YOY. In the Eurozone, inflation accelerated to 1.9% YOY in February, up from 1.7% in January, attributable to increases in unprocessed food and services inflation. Food, alcohol and tobacco decelerated to 2.5% YOY, down from 2.6% in the previous month.
Methionine
Price forecast
Methionine
Expana forecasted an increase in Methionine prices for 2026. The price of Methionine rose significantly during this period, starting at 2.17 EUR/kg in the first quarter and climbing to 4.60 EUR/kg in the second quarter of 2026. Production costs have been on an upward trajectory since reaching a low point in the third quarter of 2025, with the overall estimated production cost now exceeding its moving average.
This escalation is primarily due to higher prices of key raw materials necessary for methionine manufacturing, including Ammonia, Methanol, and Sulfuric Acid. Among these, Sulfuric Acid has seen the most notable cost increase. Globally, demand for methionine is projected to grow by 3.7% in 2026, supporting a bullish market outlook. Seasonally, prices typically peak between March and May, making this period particularly favourable for price increases. By summer, the seasonal upward pressure generally diminishes, leading to more stabilized prices.
The recent rise in prices has been significantly influenced by the conflict in the Middle East, which has led suppliers to invoke Force Majeure clauses due to restricted movement of essential ingredients through the Strait of Hormuz. Feed additive markets are highly susceptible to supply disruptions, resulting in substantial price volatility, as evidenced by similar fluctuations in 2015.
Additionally, the production of methionine, a key feed additive, is highly energy intensive. The recent sharp increases in energy costs, particularly in oil and gas markets, have further driven production expenses.
The ongoing supply chain disruptions and shipping risks have compounded these issues, particularly impacting the market in 2026. The timeline for the normalisation of raw material supply remains uncertain; however, given the logistical bottlenecks and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, the delivery of crucial materials could remain disrupted for an extended period.
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