Cocoa Price Trends
Cocoa
Price movements
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ICE #11 FUTURES PRICES (MAY ‘26)
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
Key Takeaways
- Spot cocoa prices in London were volatile throughout March, ranging from a minimum of £2,081/mt on March 2 and increased by 19.5% to a maximum of £2,487/mt on March 31. According to industry sources traders who had bet on falling prices were buying back contracts this month, pushing up prices temporarily. The market is now trading sideways with market participants awaiting more clarity once the Q1 grindings come out on April 16.
- All eyes remain firmly focused on the upcoming Q1 grindings release, with most of the major grinding regions scheduled to publish their data on Thursday, 16 April.
- The conflict in Iran continues to unfold with limited clarity regarding its broader implications for global trade flows. A notional proposal raised on 7 April has introduced the possibility of tolls being implemented in the Straits of Hormuz, either unilaterally by Iran or in coordination with Oman.
- For the COT week ending 31st March 2026, Funds bought slightly more cocoa in New York, increasing net longs by about +241 lots to +7,777.In London, they increased short positions by -1,530 lots to -27,367, the largest net short in 17 weeks.
- Cocoa butter ratios rose throughout March, from 1.80 (six months forward) at the start of the month to 1.88 in the final week.
Disclaimer:
Expana’s most recent cocoa assessments: April 8th:
Expana assessed its Expana Benchmark Prices for spot Cocoa Butter EXW Western Europe (EBP) at €5,156/mt, down €127/mt from the previous assessment. Spot butter ratios were heard most recently on 8 April at 1.87. Cocoa Powder EXW Western Europe (EBP) was assessed at €5,100/mt, unchanged week on week, while Cocoa Liquor EXW Western Europe (EBP) declined to €3,971/mt, down €97/mt. No data were excluded from the assessment.
Cocoa prices in London increased in March due to short covering
- Spot cocoa prices in London were volatile throughout March, ranging from a minimum of £2,081/mt on March 2 and increased by 19.5% to a maximum of £2,487/mt on March 31. According to industry sources traders who had bet on falling prices were buying back contracts this month, pushing up prices temporarily. The market is now trading sideways with market participants awaiting more clarity once the Q1 grindings come out on April 16.
- Despite recent price increases, prices are still significantly down year-over-year (YOY). On March 31 2025, the spot price of cocoa in London was £6,198/mt, 59.9% higher than on March 31 2026.
- The arb (New York – London) widened basis the second position (N26), moving from $ 115 at the end of February to $ 135 at the end of March. The widening arb was driven in part by a weaker Sterling, which fell from 1.3431 against the Dollar at the beginning of March to 1.3221 by the end of the month, a decline of 1.5%.
Market Sentiment
Cocoa prices in New York were volatile throughout March
- Spot cocoa prices in New York were volatile throughout March, ranging from a minimum of $2,925/mt on March 3 and increased by 14.7% to a maximum of $3,356/mt on March 10. According to industry sources traders who had bet on falling prices were buying back contracts this month, pushing up prices temporarily. The market is now trading sideways with market participants awaiting more clarity once the Q1 grindings come out on April 16.
- Despite recent price increases, prices are still significantly down year-over-year (YOY). On March 31 2025, the spot price of cocoa in New York was $7,902/mt, 58.2% higher than on March 31 2026, at $3,300/mt
- The arb (New York – London) widened basis the second position (N26), moving from $ 115 at the end of February to $ 135 at the end of March. The widening arb was driven in part by a weaker Sterling, which fell from 1.3431 against the Dollar at the beginning of March to 1.3221 by the end of the month, a decline of 1.5%.
Market Sentiment
Cocoa
Price drivers
Q1 Grindings Release
All eyes remain firmly focused on the upcoming Q1 grindings release, with most of the major grinding regions scheduled to publish their data on Thursday, 16 April. Uncertainty continues to dominate industry sentiment. Participants have struggled to confidently estimate the pace of grind recovery for the remainder of the 2025/26 season. As a result, end-of-year balance sheet projections still vary widely, ranging from modest surpluses just above +100k tonnes to more substantial figures approaching +400k tonnes. That said, the majority of recent forecasts have started to converge in a narrower band of roughly +200–250k tonnes, reflecting a slightly more aligned but still cautious outlook.
The Q1 grindings data will play a critical role in shaping near-term expectations, particularly in determining whether early signs of demand recovery—what some are calling “green shoots”—are beginning to emerge across key consuming regions. There have already been tentative improvements observed in select origins, notably in Ghana and Ecuador, where grind activity has shown some stabilization and incremental growth. If similar patterns appear in larger consuming markets, it could signal the early stages of a broader recovery in demand, which would have meaningful implications for price direction and market positioning
Conflict in the Middle East
The conflict in Iran continues to unfold with limited clarity regarding its broader implications for global trade flows. A notional proposal raised on 7 April has introduced the possibility of tolls being implemented in the Straits of Hormuz, either unilaterally by Iran or in coordination with Oman. At this stage, details remain highly uncertain, leaving market participants with little concrete guidance on how such measures might be executed or enforced.
While some cargoes have resumed transit through the Straits, the situation remains fragile and subject to rapid change. Energy markets have already begun reacting, with prices trending higher amid concerns over potential supply disruptions. If sustained, this tightening in energy markets could begin to filter through into the broader macroeconomic environment, increasing costs and dampening consumption trends.
For cocoa, this raises the risk that already-soft demand conditions could weaken further, particularly if higher input and transportation costs persist. So far, regional stock levels appear sufficient to absorb short-term disruptions, providing a degree of buffer against immediate supply shocks. However, this resilience may prove temporary if transit conditions do not normalize.
El Niño weather pattern
The development of the El Niño weather pattern is expected to continue progressing throughout April, remaining a key point of focus for agricultural and commodity markets. According to the Fundamentals team, while their analysis suggests there is limited direct correlation between the ENSO cycle and rainfall outcomes in West Africa, this has not prevented the broader industry from trading on the long-held assumption that El Niño conditions typically bring drier weather to the region. As a result, market sentiment may continue to reflect a degree of weather-driven risk premium, even in the absence of strong empirical linkage.
Beyond West Africa, the potential production impacts in other cocoa-growing regions are more clearly established. Countries such as Indonesia and Ecuador are particularly vulnerable during strong El Niño phases, where elevated temperatures and altered precipitation patterns can stress cocoa trees and reduce yields. These conditions often lead to lower pod development and can ultimately translate into measurable declines in output if sustained over key growing periods.
Historical precedent reinforces these concerns. Similar patterns were observed during the strong El Niño events of 1983/84 and 1997/98, when Ecuador experienced notable production disruptions tied to excessive heat and weather volatility. While each El Niño event carries its own characteristics, the recurrence of these impacts suggests that downside risks to production in certain regions should not be overlooked, even if West Africa proves more resilient than commonly assumed.
Cocoa
Price forecast
Cocoa
Cocoa prices have been an extreme downtrend throughout 2025 and into 2026, however we are seeing some signs of a turnaround. Overall, the estimated range highlights that prices are in an anti-bubble, meaning that the expectation from this perspective is for a price rally. The industry is now focused on the Q1 grindings reports, which serve as the definitive measure of global cocoa demand and processing activity. There continues to be mixed situations in Ghana and Ivory Coast regarding pod development. Seasonality points to a typical price rally into Q2, which places an upward pressure on cocoa price from this perspective. Inventory levels are forecast to rally strongly, which is likely to cap meaningful price rallies.
When we look at the technical analysis, we can see prices remain in a strong long-term downtrend. However, what is worth noting is that the RSIS has hit an extreme low of 20. This is often an area that coincides with price rallies, and so we are cautious that prices could be forming a meaningful low. The short-term price action alludes to this, with prices breaking above the moving average, following our forecast, heading higher into Q2.
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