Wheat Price Trends
Wheat
Price movements
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Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
According to the USDA, global 2025/26 wheat production is expected at a record level of 842.1 MMT, up 5.2% YOY.
Key Takeaways
Geopolitical risk and input cost pressure drive renewed volatility:
- Wheat markets experienced renewed volatility in March, as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe continued to shape sentiment and sustain a risk premium across the global grain complex. According to market players, prices are expected to remain firm in the near term, supported by elevated freight, fertiliser and energy costs. However, participants remain cautious, noting that any escalation or prolongation of conflict could begin to impact trade flows and influence planting decisions.
CBOT wheat supported by deteriorating US HRW conditions:
- CBOT wheat futures exhibited relative strength in March, underpinned by mounting concerns over Hard Red Winter wheat prospects in the southern US Plains. Persistently warm and dry weather conditions have continued to erode crop conditions and weigh on yield potential.
Market Sentiment
Ample global production limits gains:
- Market participants expect abundant supply to guide the grains market through Q1 and Q2 2026, influencing global trade patterns.
Geopolitical tensions and planting decisions:
- Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe continue to underpin sentiment, sustaining a risk premium across global grain markets. The strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz is increasingly reverberating through fertiliser markets, adding a secondary layer of support to prices. At the same time, Russia’s suspension of ammonium nitrate exports between 21 March and 21 April, aimed at protecting domestic supply amid strong export demand, has further tightened global availability. Against this backdrop, rising input costs are increasing concerns over production expenses for the 2027 crop. Market participants note that these pressures may drive adjustments in crop rotations, with some farmers reducing wheat acreage in favour of oilseeds, pulses and barley. If replicated more widely, such shifts could have broader implications for global wheat supply balances into 2027.
Wheat
Price drivers
Global
The latest March update from the USDA offered limited new direction for wheat markets. US wheat supply and demand estimates were left unchanged. Globally, the USDA slightly increased supply projections to 842.1 MMT, while consumption is expected to reach a record 825 MMT. Ending stocks were revised marginally lower to 276.96 MMT, down 0.2% month-on-month. Market participants generally viewed the report as neutral in terms of price direction.
US
CBOT wheat prices have shown relative strength in March, supported by mounting concerns over Hard Red Winter wheat prospects in the southern US Plains. Persistent warm and dry weather conditions continue to deteriorate crop conditions. According to USDA data as of the end of March, only 46% of winter wheat in Kansas was rated good or excellent conditions, down six percentage points week-on-week. Oklahoma conditions remained particularly poor, with just 14% rated in good or excellent condition, the lowest for this time of year since 2018. More than half of the US wheat areas are currently affected by drought, roughly double the level seen at the same time last year.
EU
In the EU, market participants report that wheat crop conditions currently appear favourable, with development slightly ahead of normal thanks to generally supportive growing conditions across key producing regions. Market players expect EU wheat production for the 2025/26 season to reach between 141 MMT and 144 MMT.
Russia
According to SovEcon, Russian wheat output for 2025/26 is projected at 85.9 MMT, up 2.1 MMT from its previous estimate. IKAR took an even more optimistic stance on February 13, raising its forecast by 3 MMT to 91 MMT. The revisions reflect generally favourable crop conditions across key producing regions. According to the International Grain Council (IGC), Russia’s wheat production is expected to be 85.4 MMT, down from last year’s 90.3 MMT.. Weather-related concerns around winterkill have eased for now, shifting market focus toward broader macro drivers. According to market sources, future international and domestic price movements will be strongly influenced by developments in the Iran conflict and the associated dynamics in energy markets.
Russia suspended ammonium nitrate exports from 21 March to 21 April 2026.
Electricity
Electricity prices increase following Gulf turmoil
Electricity prices increased throughout March, up by 86% MOM at the end of the month, as Middle East turmoil drove up energy costs.
Logistics
Shipping carriers apply emergency surcharges
The Global Shipping 40-foot Container Composite Index increased by about 20% MOM in end-March, to $2,279/unit, marking four consecutive weeks of increases. Following the start of US and Israeli military action in Iran, energy prices have spiked, leading shipping carriers to apply emergency fuel surcharges to freight rates. Market sources expect rates to remain elevated in the short term if the volatility and regional disruption persist. On routes outside of the region, sources state that operations remain relatively normal. Carriers continue to wait for an uptick in demand following the Chinese Lunar New Year, which has been slow to materialize.
Crude Oil and Natural Gas
Crude oil prices up on geopolitical tensions
The price of Brent crude oil increased throughout March, with continued military action in the Middle East fueling the uptrend. The prolonged de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global crude oil production flows, is tightening supply in key destination markets.
Fertilizer
Fertilizer prices remain elevated
NPK fertilizer prices stood at $683.39/MT as of March 27, 2026, up by 20% YOY. Sources report that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has significantly affected fertilizer flows.
Wheat
Price forecast
Wheat EU
Euronext wheat prices have been dropping since mid-March 2026, consistent with the seasonal pattern of a decline to a May or June low.
Global inventory levels are expected to remain high for 2025/26, which could continue to weigh down on prices in the short term. However, the regression model indicates that wheat prices are already undervalued. Also, speculators have been increasing the number of long positions. These factors point to an upside risk in the short term, potentially leading to a price recovery into late Q2 or early Q3 2026.
The technical signals show prices are below the moving average, favouring further price decline. However, the RSI is at oversold levels and shows potential bullish divergence, which warns of an approaching low and a potential price recovery. Therefore, it is possible that wheat prices will show some price volatility in the short term.
Prices are likely to remain influenced by developments in the US-Iran conflict. Production costs for wheat are expected to rise significantly, driven by surges in crude oil and fertiliser prices, which could have significant ramifications in the medium to long term. In the short term, price developments will strongly depend on conflict-related news amid weather developments affecting Spring wheat.
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