Red Meat
Beef
Beef
Price movements (monthly)
EU Beef
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
US Beef
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
In April, EU beef prices rose by 7.4% month-over-month, reaching €7,205.21 per metric ton. This sharp increase was primarily driven by a continued shortage of cattle and beef supplies across the region. The Irish Food Board forecasts a 5% year-over-year decline in Ireland’s prime cattle slaughter in 2025, with volumes expected to drop to 1.88 million head. As a major contributor to the European beef supply, Ireland’s tightening output has helped fuel bullish sentiment in the market.
The price of live cattle in the US increased by 2.9% m-o-m in April 2025 to $2.10/lbs, the highest level in history for that month, and up by 13.9% y-o-y. The pace of cattle slaughter remained below year-ago levels, falling by 5.8% year-to-date through April 26. The average dressed steer weight as of April 12 was 946 lbs, up by 24 lbs y-o-y and 3 lbs lower w-o-w, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). The USDA adjusted estimated 2025 beef production slightly upward from last month to 26.700 billion lbs. This is based on heavier carcass weights, which offset the decrease in cattle slaughter.
Beef
Other price drivers
↓ Logistics
The shipping 40ft container composite index fell by 5.55% m-o-m to $2,205.67 per unit in April. Container demand weakened under the weight of escalating US tariffs and slowing global trade. Chinese exports declined sharply, and tariff relief on select goods offered little support. Carriers responded by cutting capacity, but persistent overcapacity and low profitability continued to pressure rates.
↓ Energy Prices
The Brent crude oil price decreased by 6.52% m-o-m in April to $66.81/barrel, representing a 24.93% y-o-y fall. The drop followed sweeping US tariffs that stoked fears of a global recession, leading many to reduce their forecasts for oil production through 2025. Meanwhile, OPEC+ ramped up production, reversing prior output cuts despite fragile demand, further weakening prices. The oversupplied market reacted with volatility, and analysts responded swiftly—JPMorgan lowered its Brent forecast for 2025 to $66.
↓ Feed Costs
Feed grains are a significant component of livestock production costs. As a result, any price increase in maize (corn) and wheat could push prices of animal protein upwards. EU wheat prices fell in April 2025 as rising production expectations signaled strong future supply. At the same time, a strengthening euro made European wheat less competitive globally, reducing export demand. Sluggish shipment volumes and ample availability combined to push prices lower across the bloc’s key grain markets.
↓ Currency Exchange Rates
In April 2025, the USD fell against the EUR, decreasing by 5.19% m-o-m and 6.17% y-o-y. The US dollar fell sharply against the euro due to aggressive US tariffs, rising fiscal deficits, and investor fears over economic stability. Capital fled to safer assets like the euro following trade tensions and uncertainty, leading to the dollar's steepest monthly drop against the euro in years.
Beef
Market sentiment for the month ahead
EU Market Sentiment
Tight EU Supply
A tight supply, combined with production uncertainties,, and strong seasonal demand indicates sustained a bullish market sentiment throughout the month.
↑ Rise in Seasonal Demand
Demand for specific beef cuts, including steak, mince, and VLs, is expected to increase as summer barbecue season approaches.
↑ EU Regulations and Production Challenges
New EU regulations are creating significant investment uncertainties for farmers. The ongoing stream of new requirements from the European Commission (EC) demands substantial financial investments and changes in farm management practices, further tightening already strained profit margins.
↑ Projected Decline in Beef Production
The structural constraints in the supply chain are further exacerbated by the early slaughtering of cattle, as farmers seek to capitalize on elevated market prices. However, this practice has led to reduced carcass weights, signaling potential supply challenges. These factors reflect tight cattle and beef supplies on the market in 2025.
US Market Sentiment
Wholesale Beef Prices Experience Small Declines
Beef demand eased throughout April, but the cutout remained above 2024 levels.
↑ Inflation Slowed in March
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) was reported at 2.4% y-o-y in March, slowing slightly from 2.8% in February. The food index increased by 2.4% over the past 12 months. The meat, poultry, fish, and eggs index gained 1.3% last month, driven by a 5.9% increase in the eggs index.
↑ On Feed Inventory 1.6% Below Year Ago
The April 2025 USDA Cattle on Feed report indicated a 1.6% decrease in the on-feed number. Placements were 5% above a year ago. The increase in placements was partly driven by the renewal of feeder cattle imports from Mexico, which resumed in February 2025 after the detection of New World Screwworm in November 2024.
→ H5N1 Update in Dairy Cows
As of April 28, 2025, the USDA confirmed H5N1 virus detections on 1,047 dairy cattle operations in 17 states. To date, there have been no reports of symptoms in beef herds.
Trusted by industry leaders
About Expana
Expana is the world's largest IOSCO-certified commodity price reporting database.
With 30,000+ accurate and timely commodity prices and 1,000+ price forecasts across – agrifood and industrial markets, you can improve price visibility across your whole supply chain to cut costs, reduce COGS and mitigate risks. Products by Expana: Mintec Analytics, Urner Barry, Feed Info, Stratégie Grains.
Disclaimer
Any forward-looking statements are the views and expectations of the individual market participants. Expana does not have a forward-looking view within this report or associated content. To the extent legally permissible, Expana shall not be liable and disclaims and excludes any and all liability (whether direct or indirect), nor shall Expana be liable in contract, tort (including negligence), misrepresentation (whether innocent or negligent), restitution or otherwise. No information (whether written, electronic or oral) made available herein constitutes or is to be taken as constituting or the giving of investment or financial advice by Expana, or any of its affiliates or their employees to any person, organisation or entity. Any use or reliance on the information and any suggestions, insights or guidance made against such content is entirely at your own risk.
For details on the methodology used to assess the Expana Benchmark Prices, visit this link.