Seafood

Salmon

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Salmon

Price movements (monthly)

Norwegian Salmon (EBP)

Month-on-month Change

Year-on-year Change

Chilean Salmon (EBP)

Month-on-month Change

Year-on-year Change

In March, Norwegian salmon prices declined by 5.3% q-o-q in April. During April, the Norwegian salmon market saw a recovery in prices, driven by increased demand ahead of Easter and a reduced harvest during the holiday period. However, in the last week of April, a drop in price was noted as the demand for Norwegian whole salmon weakened.

The price of Chilean Atlantic farmed salmon increased by 4.8 % q-o-q in April. The Chilean whole fish market remained stable in April, with sufficient supply against moderate demand. The Chilean salmon market showed slight strength due to increased demand and reduced holiday production. Overall, supply remains barely adequate across size categories.

Salmon

Other price drivers

↓ Aquafeed Ingredient FM

Since December 2024, the price of Peruvian fish meal has shown an upward trend, averaging $1,423 MT in April 2025. This reflects an increase of 1.8% m-o-m and a decrease of 8.8% y-o-y. The 2025 fishing season for Peruvian anchovy has started successfully. According to the Institute of the Sea of Peru as of April 27, 2025, the total catch has reached 190,218 MT, which is 65.8% of the Total Permissible Catch. Brazilian soybean prices continue to decline. In April, the price reached $313 MT, indicating a decrease of 1.3% m-o-m and 14.0% y-o-y. The downward trend observed in 2024 is expected to continue into 2025 due to favorable weather conditions. Brazil's National Association of Cereal Exporters reports that soybean exports in March totaled 16.1 million MT, slightly exceeding earlier forecasts.

↑ Brent Crude Price

The Brent crude oil average price declined by 9.18% m-o-m in April to $66.87/barrel, representing a drop of 25.28% y-o-y. A stable market sentiment regarding crude oil persists, alongside concerns about the impact of US tariffs. OPEC's demand forecast for 2025 remains stable, showing a projected increase of 100,000 barrels per day (b/d) for 2026. Additionally, OPEC plans to raise output by 138,000 b/d in April and another 135,000 b/d in May, providing extra short-term supply to the global market.

→ Expana Dollar Index

The Expana dollar index reached 99.44 for week 17 of 2025, reflecting a reduction of 4.1% m-o-m and 6.4% y-o-y. The US dollar reached a three-year low as Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for not cutting interest rates. Market predictions suggest a possible recession and a cut in interest rates.

→ EL Niño–Southern Oscillation

In April 2025, the USD fell against the EUR, decreasing by 5.19% m-o-m and 6.17% y-o-y. The US dollar fell sharply against the euro due to aggressive US tariffs, rising fiscal deficits, and investor fears over economic stability. Capital fled to safer assets like the euro following trade tensions and uncertainty, leading to the dollar's steepest monthly drop against the euro in years.

Salmon

Market sentiment for the month ahead

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Any forward-looking statements are the views and expectations of the individual market participants. Expana does not have a forward-looking view within this report or associated content. To the extent legally permissible, Expana shall not be liable and disclaims and excludes any and all liability (whether direct or indirect), nor shall Expana be liable in contract, tort (including negligence), misrepresentation (whether innocent or negligent), restitution or otherwise. No information (whether written, electronic or oral) made available herein constitutes or is to be taken as constituting or the giving of investment or financial advice by Expana, or any of its affiliates or their employees to any person, organisation or entity. Any use or reliance on the information and any suggestions, insights or guidance made against such content is entirely at your own risk.

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