Grains
Wheat
Wheat
Price movements (monthly)
Euronext Futures Prices
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
Cbot Futures Prices
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
The Euronext milling wheat futures price decreased by €7.24 month-on-month (m-o-m) to €202.75/mt, while the CBOT wheat futures price dropped by $4.04 to $188.49/mt. This month, market sources have credited the downward price movements to favorable weather conditions in Europe, the US, and Russia. Furthermore, demand has been sluggish with the European Union’s exports 35% behind last year’s pace.
In addition, analysts have stated that a stronger euro has been a significant bearish factor for European wheat in April, making it more expensive on the global market and dampening competitivenes.s.
Wheat
Other price drivers
↓ Macroeconomic Environment
The Brent crude oil price decreased by 6.5% m-o-m in April to $66.69/barrel. Crude oil prices continued to fall throughout April, chiefly driven by tariff-related demand concerns. Additionally, OPEC increased output by significantly more than expected. However, a marked rise in oil imports by China limited the price decline, but market sources reported a predominantly bearish mood. EU gas prices fell 15.5% m-o-m in April to €35.36/MWh. Market sources reported weakened demand within Europe throughout April, driven by the arrival of warmer weather, thus reducing heating demand. Additionally, LNG imports into Europe remained steady.
↓ Logistics
The Brent crude oil price decreased by 6.5% m-o-m in April to $66.69/barrel. Crude oil prices continued to fall throughout April, chiefly driven by tariff-related demand concerns. Additionally, OPEC increased output by significantly more than expected. However, a marked rise in oil imports by China limited the price decline, but market sources reported a predominantly bearish mood. EU gas prices fell 15.5% m-o-m in April to €35.36/MWh. Market sources reported weakened demand within Europe throughout April, driven by the arrival of warmer weather, thus reducing heating demand. Additionally, LNG imports into Europe remained steady.
↑ Fertiliser Cost
The Brent crude oil price decreased by 6.5% m-o-m in April to $66.69/barrel. Crude oil prices continued to fall throughout April, chiefly driven by tariff-related demand concerns. Additionally, OPEC increased output by significantly more than expected. However, a marked rise in oil imports by China limited the price decline, but market sources reported a predominantly bearish mood. EU gas prices fell 15.5% m-o-m in April to €35.36/MWh. Market sources reported weakened demand within Europe throughout April, driven by the arrival of warmer weather, thus reducing heating demand. Additionally, LNG imports into Europe remained steady.
Wheat
Market sentiment for the month ahead
Increasing supply prospects
As May approaches, market sources widely agree that sluggish EU exports, increasing US ending stocks, and favorable weather conditions have all contributed to an overall optimistic supply outlook. This heavy supply situation could weigh on prices over the next month according to market players.
↓ Increased US ending stocks
In its latest WASDE report (April 10), the USDA increased its forecast for US wheat ending stocks in the 2024/25 season by 735,000 mt to a total of 23 million mt. Market sources told Expana that the upward revision could potentially contribute to bearish sentiment over the coming month, as supply may be robust.
↓ Favorable weather conditions
Market sources told Expana that wheat crops in Europe are mostly in good condition, despite concerns of dryness in northern regions. In France, a dry start to spring helped fields recover from last year's soggy conditions. Analysts expect showers in late April to help wheat crops cope with a hot spell expected in early May. Market participants are expecting the improvement of crop conditions to heighten yield prospects, potentially adding to bearish sentiment for the month ahead. In addition to Europe, ideal weather conditions have also been observed in the US, where rains in the US plains have helped ease concerns of dryness.
↓ Weak EU wheat exports
Market participants broadly agree that recent weakness in EU wheat exports could weigh on market sentiment in the near term, as oversupply concerns intensify and demand side support for prices diminishes. In April, the USDA decreased expected exports from the EU by 500,000 mt in the 2024/25 season, down to 26.5 million mt. Market sources told Expana the downward revision reflects reduced demand from China and Algeria’s continued exclusion of French wheat from its tenders.
↓ Further decrease in Chinese export demand
In its April WASDE report, the USDA made a further downward revision to Chinese imports in the 2024/25 season by 3 million mt, to a total of 3.5 million mt in the marketing year. This highlights a y-o-y decrease of 10 million mt (74.3%). Market sources have attributed the decline to multiple factors, but particularly greater efforts from China to achieve self-sufficiency, as 2024 saw record domestic grain production, with wheat estimated (USDA) at 140 million mt. Furthermore, sources believe trade tensions between China and the US further supported the decline in Chinese wheat imports.
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