Cheese Market - United States
The US dairy industry continues to invest in cheese production. Several large production facilities are opening across the country through 2026, with a focus on American-type cheeses and mozzarella. This expansion is being driven by rising domestic demand and the growing presence of US cheese in international markets.
Domestic consumption reached approximately 42.3 pounds per capita in 2023 and is expected to continue increasing. US cheese exports rose by 8% year-over-year in 2024, contributing to industry revenue growth. Central America and Southeast Asia have steadily increased their imports of US cheese, indicating an expanding global market reach.
US cheese remains competitively priced on the global market compared to New Zealand and European products. However, concerns remain about sustaining demand, particularly amid ongoing trade tensions and tariff risks. New capacity growth is also challenged by stagnant milk production and persistent labor shortages.
Production of mozzarella, the most popular cheese in the US since 2011grew by 3.4% in January 2025 year over year. This reflects consumer preferences for Italian-style cheeses, especially for pizza and lower-fat dairy options. Newly added processing capacity is expected to further support mozzarella output.
US cheddar prices rose steadily between May and October 2024, peaking in October before declining in early 2025. After a downturn in Q1, prices rebound slightly in mid-April 2025 due to improved export interest.
US Forecasting Insight
Cheese prices have followed the price of milk and declined since Q4 last year. We see a close link between cheese and milk, which should come as no surprise. Therefore, we forecast that cheese prices will follow milk and increase towards the usual seasonal peak around September, with a dip around July. Therefore, the risk should be to the upside for the next 5–6 months. Just as with milk, we do not expect to see a spike of the same level as previously unless some type of disruption hits the dairy market. Given the tariff strategy that President Trump is using, we may see this impact the prices of the general dairy market. Tariffs could make it harder to import dairy products from other countries, thus forcing consumers to buy American products. However, this may lead to a significant increase in demand, which could lead to prices increases.
Cheese Market - European Union
With EU milk deliveries stagnating in 2024, dairy processors prioritized cheese production due to higher profit margins compared to other dairy commodities like butter and skimmed milk powder (SMP). Total cheese production in the EU reached a record high of 11,170 tonnes in 2024, up 2.6% year-over-year. Growth was observed in nearly all EU countries.
Prices also rose significantly. The EBP for EU Gouda ( J114) reached €4,120/MT, an 18% increase year-over-year, while mild cheddar EBP (J119) prices climbed to €4,405/MT, up 9.5%. Although prices were elevated, domestic demand, particularly in Southern Europe, the primary growth driver. International demand remained subdued at 1,400 tonnes, with similar patterns continuing into Q1 2025.
Market participants expect that the seasonal production peak in May will influence pricing for the second half of 2025.
EU Forecasting Insight
The price of Gouda (J114) has come down a bit since March, but we expect that prices will increase in Q2. We could see a minor impact on prices due to US tariffs, but as Gouda is exported to many other countries than the US, the impact should be somewhat limited. Our current expectation for Gouda is dependent on the development of fresh milk. If we start to see prices for milk come up quicker than anticipated it will translate into Gouda, but with a slight lag.
Reminder: The data, content or information provided herein shall (i) not constitute an inducement or encouragement to invest in any commodity, product, financial product, security, derivative, hedging product or otherwise and (ii) not constitute advice in any form whatsoever (including but not limited to hedging, market movements or otherwise). All data, content and information herein provided is provided on an "as-is" basis, and you are responsible for the conclusions drawn or the decisions made in respect of the same. This data is the copyright of Expana, its affiliates and their respective licensors.