Conclusion
The global dairy sector, continues to navigate a dynamic landscape shaped by disease outbreaks, shifting consumer demand, climate variability, and geopolitical developments. While 2024 and early 2025 introduced new challenges, the sector has shown resilience through investment in production capacity, improved herd genetics, and evolving supply chain strategies.
Seasonality and production cycles remain key factors influencing market performance, particularly in pricing for milk, butterfat and protein components, and derivative products like cheese, butter, and milk powders.
In the US, the spread of avian influenza disrupted milk output, triggering market volatility, especially in Class III and IV prices. Despite these setbacks, optimism remains high due to herd expansion and investment in cheese production. In the EU, regulatory pressures and disease outbreaks led to declining milk volumes, but strong cheese margins and efficient trade structures have helped mitigate some of the impacts.
Markets for butter and skimmed milk powder in both regions are undergoing price corrections following volatility in 2024. Outlooks for these commodities are mixed and closely tied to future supply dynamics and global trade flows.
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Looking ahead, the dairy industry must remain agile. As markets contend with possible shocks, which are policy-driven, climate-related, or disease-based, both resilience and flexibility will be crucial to managing supply, ensuring competitiveness, and meeting evolving global demand.
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