Seasonality of Milk Production
Milk production in the EU and the US follows a clear seasonal pattern, typically peaking during the spring and summer months, most notably in May or June termed the “milk flush.” Output reaches its lowest levels in winter, bottoming out in December or January. This seasonal cycle is driven largely by dairy cow reproductive patterns and environmental conditions.
Grass-based feeding systems play a major role in this pattern. In Europe, countries such as Ireland, Germany, and the Netherlands benefit from lush pastures in spring and early summer, while in the US, the Midwest and Pacific Northwest experience similar trends due to their reliance on extensive grazing systems. A key factor behind this seasonality is the lactation cycle, which begins immediately after calving and lasts for about ten months. Milk output is strongest during early and mid-lactation, supported by hormonal signals post-calving.
Over time, the impact of seasonal fluctuations has diminished due to technological advancements. Improved milking systems, genetics, and feed management have led to more stable milk production across the year. Enhanced control over lactation cycles has also supported a more consistent output.
A further factor shaping the global dairy market is the counter-seasonal production cycles of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. While the Northern Hemisphere peaks from May to July, the Southern Hemisphere's flush occurs from November to January. These contrasting patterns support robust year-round global trade.
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