New Zealand Dairy Exports
New Zealand's 2024/2025 milk production season concluded in May with a rebound in volumes following a modest dip in April. In May alone, milk production increased by 8.3% year-on-year (y-o-y), while milk solids (fat and protein content) rose 8.0% compared to the same month in 2024, indicating not only more milk but also higher component quality.
Overall, the season recorded a 2.6% y-o-y increase, marking a notable recovery after three consecutive years of underperformance, supported by favorable weather conditions and improved farmgate margins.
New Zealand’s export flows remained resilient. This dynamic has supported dairy prices in the short term, though continued production gains and geopolitical risks may introduce downward pressure in the second half of 2025.
New Zealand has been a key beneficiary of China’s strong import performance in early 2025. Year-to-date (YTD) Chinese dairy imports are up 10% in milk equivalent terms, and New Zealand has capitalised on this growth thanks to its zero-tariff access under the NZ-China Free Trade Agreement, effective since January 2024. This trade agreement has given New Zealand exporters a clear pricing advantage, particularly relevant amid robust demand and constrained domestic milk production in China.
The strongest gains came from skim milk powder (SMP) and cheese, where New Zealand has outperformed competitors such as Australia, the US, and Belarus. Cheese exports from New Zealand have contributed significantly to sustained Chinese import growth since December 2024, while the EU and US have struggled to match their 2024 performance.
In contrast, whole milk powder (WMP) exports to China declined in May after increases in March and April, but cumulative WMP exports for the first five months of 2025 are now broadly in line with 2024 levels. In the butter category, New Zealand continues to dominate, accounting for 87% of China’s YTD imports. Although overall Chinese butter import volumes dipped slightly in April and May, New Zealand’s exporters captured most of the trade.
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