Pre-WASDE market player expectations
October 2025
Market players expect another downward revision to both US corn and soybean yields
The soybean market is overshadowed by the US-China trade war; China has avoided buying US new-crop soybeans up to this point
Note: The Oct 2025 WASDE was scheduled to be released Oct 9 but due to the ongoing US government shutdown the USDA said the report “will be suspended until further notice.”
Corn
Soybeans
Wheat
Market players anticipate another yield reduction for the US due to disease and late-season dryness, yet robust planted acreage is expected to still underpin strong overall production. 2025/26 US ending stocks are expected to raised as the Sep Grain Stocks report was higher than expected.
Like US corn, US soybean yields are expected to have a downward revision amid late-summer drought and disease, but private yield reports have shown that yields have been more resilient than corn yields. However, there are concerns that late-planted soybean yields will be more negatively impacted by the dryness. However, the US-China trade dispute is currently the main driver of the soybean market.
USDA wheat forecasts are expected to be mostly unchanged by market players. Nothing has changed to change the market perspective that there is ample world supply.
Corn
Market players anticipate another yield reduction for the US due to disease and late-season dryness, yet robust planted acreage is expected to still underpin strong overall production. 2025/26 US ending stocks are expected to raised as the Sep Grain Stocks report was higher than expected.
Soybeans
Like US corn, US soybean yields are expected to have a downward revision amid late-summer drought and disease, but private yield reports have shown that yields have been more resilient than corn yields. However, there are concerns that late-planted soybean yields will be more negatively impacted by the dryness. However, the US-China trade dispute is currently the main driver of the soybean market.
Wheat
USDA wheat forecasts are expected to be mostly unchanged by market players. Nothing has changed to change the market perspective that there is ample world supply.
World Ending Stocks 2025/26 Market Player Estimates
(million metric tons)
US Ending Stocks 2025/26 Market Player Estimates
(million metric tons)
2025/26 US Crop Production Market Player Estimates
(Yield in bushels per acres, production in billions of bushels)
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