Salmon Price Trends
Salmon
Price movements
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Urner Barry Fresh Farmed Salmon Index
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
Chile - Salmon, Farmed, Fillet, Fresh, Atl., D-Trim, FOB Miami, 3-4 lbs.
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
Norway - Salmon Farm 3-6kg FPI
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
Impact of Middle East conflict on salmon markets:
Fresh farmed salmon (from Norway, Chile, Canada, other origins) may face rising transport costs as fuel surcharges begin rolling out across multiple shipment modes, potentially affecting US consumer prices.
All three major salmon exporters rely on trucking to move products regionally and domestically, but their primary modes of transportation to U.S. markets differ by origin:
- Norwegian producers primarily use passenger planes for transatlantic transport.
- Chilean suppliers depend mainly on cargo planes.
- Canadian producers rely mainly on trucking and ferry vessels.
- All three operate boats at their aquaculture sites, with fuel costs for these vessels also climbing amid ongoing Middle East geopolitical tensions.
Chilean (Farmed, Fillet, Fresh, Atl., D-Trim, FOB Miami, 3-4 lbs.)
- Market watch: The current price difference between the Chilean and Norwegian Salmon is normal, exerting neutral pressure on the Chilean price. Moreover, Chilean salmon prices are expected to increase towards the peak in April.
- Production: Chilean production has most recently decline as is below the supply trough of late 2025, inducing upward pressure on price.
Norway Salmon (Farm 3-6kg FPI)
- Market watch: Seasonality suggests that price could decrease towards the seasonal trough in August.
- Production: The aggregated Norwegian and Chilean monthly salmon production is in an uptrend, which induces downward pressure on the price.
Salmon
Price forecast
UB Salmon, Farmed, Fillet, Fresh, Chile Atl., D-Trim, FOB Miami, 3-4 lbs. EBP
- Chilean salmon prices have been rising in line with our forecast, increasing by more than 27% since late November to USD 6.30/lb.
- Seasonal trends show that prices typically increase from now into an April peak, indicating a short-term upside risk. However, the upside potential is considered somewhat limited, especially given that prices are slightly overvalued relative to our regression-estimated range.
- Technical indicators show an overbought RSI with negative divergence, signalling a potential peak leading to a temporary price decline after the seasonal peak.
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