Chicken
Chicken
Price movements
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Chicken ddwt mp EU
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
Chicken - East, Jumbo Breast Tenders EBP
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
Chicken - East Jumbo Boneless/Skinless Breasts, Tender Out EPB
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
Chicken ddwt Grade A NY
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
Top 3 Takeaways
- EU steady; US in correction: EU broiler prices are up +3.19% YoY and nearly flat MoM, while multiple US benchmarks are down sharply YoY (−10% to −33%), reflecting post-avian influenza supply recovery flooding the market.
- US breast meat under severe pressure: Boneless/skinless breasts are down −32.64% YoY despite a +6.14% MoM uptick — one of the steepest declines in the table, driven by record US production levels.
- Tenders outperforming: Tenders (+3.87% MoM) are outperforming whole birds and breasts, reflecting continued quick-service restaurant demand for tenders and nuggets.
US-Iran War Impact
- Higher fuel and transport costs increase distribution expenses. Dubai airport disruptions affect premium chilled poultry exports to Gulf markets. Feed costs may rise if energy-intensive fertilizer supply chains are disrupted, pushing up corn and soy prices over the medium term.
Chicken
Price forecast
Chicken ddwt grade A NY US
The price of chicken in the US and its regression fair value range experienced a significant increase from a low point in the second quarter of 2020. This rise was primarily driven by a notable increase in feeder costs, which went up due to higher demand for feed and rising production expenses. Additionally, a substantial depletion of chicken inventories resulted from an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), which destroyed millions of commercially raised chickens. This outbreak created a supply shock in the market, leading to higher chicken prices and impacting overall supply dynamics.
The current price of chicken in the US remains significantly below the established range of 140 -159 USD cents per pound. This indicates that the market is in an anti-bubble phase, with the potential for prices to rise as they approach the estimated range.
This range is determined through a comprehensive evaluation of market fundamentals, including supply levels, demand trends, and production costs. As the estimated range widens in response to changing market conditions, it adds upward pressure on chicken prices, signalling possible future price increases.
U.S. chicken inventories are projected to grow throughout 2026, which is likely to put neutral pressure on prices due to limited increased supply. Meanwhile, feeder costs, which have historically been low, are beginning to rise, leading to higher production expenses that could further push prices upward. Seasonality patterns indicate a typical seasonal low in Q4, followed by increases through into Q2. Currently, prices are influenced by the approach of this seasonal increase, resulting in upward pressure. Overall, current prices are below the estimated range, which is rising, thus supporting an upward trend in prices and reinforcing the forecast of increasing pricing into 2026.
UB Chicken - East Jumbo Whole Wings EBP
The price of whole chicken wings has recently declined to 0.80 USD per pound, which is significantly below the estimated range of 1.87 to 2.41 USD/lb. This estimated range is based on the commodity's overall fundamentals, indicating an appropriate price range in relation to the overall fundamental considerations. Notably, the estimated range has been declining in recent weeks, but is now showing a significant reversal, which will add upward pressure to current pricing levels.
US cold storage holdings of whole chicken wings remain at historically low levels, and the USDA forecasts a continued decline in global inventories through 2026. Inventory levels, measured in weeks of consumption, are currently extremely low at just 0.1 weeks.
The United States continues to experience frequent outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), with 41 outbreaks reported in the first four months of 2025. These outbreaks have affected over 30 million birds this year, raising concerns about potential supply shortages going into 2026. This situation is a primary factor influencing prices from an inventory standpoint.
Seasonality also affects prices predictably: a decline typically occurs in Q1, followed by a rise into Q2, and then a subsequent decline into Q4.
In summary, the current price remains well below its estimated fair range, suggesting an undervaluation relative to fundamental market conditions. The outlook for 2026 indicates an increase in prices, supported by ongoing supply concerns and seasonal patterns.
UB Chicken - East Jumbo Boneless/Skinless Breasts, Tender Out EBP
The position of Breast Tender Out is that the current price of 1.51 USD/lb remains just above the established range of USD 0.90-1.51/lb. A significant price decline has taken place from the peak observed in Q2 of 2025, when prices reached 2.84 USD/lb during a price bubble. Although the fair value range had been declining, recent data shows an upward adjustment to the estimated range, supporting the forecast of price increases into 2026.
Seasonality plays a crucial role in the pricing of chicken breasts. Typically, prices rise moderately through Q2, peaking in May, before declining in Q3 and Q4. Our forecast incorporates this seasonal pattern.
Recent increases in production costs, which have surpassed the moving average, confirm a short-term uptrend that is expected to influence pricing both in the near and longer term.
Additionally, ongoing bird flu outbreaks in the U.S. during the first half of 2025 have led to the culling of over 30 million chickens. In 2025 alone, 41 separate incidents have been recorded across the country, with projections indicating that such outbreaks are likely to persist into 2026.
In conclusion, while US Chicken Breast Tender Out prices are currently just above the estimated range, multiple fundamental factors—such as rising production costs and avian influenza outbreaks—are exerting upward pressure on prices. Based on these trends, we anticipate prices will increase into Q2 of 2026.
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