Pork
Pork
Price movements
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Pig ddwt grade S exw EU EBP [BW56]
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
UB Pork Carcass Cutout - Value EBP [4621]
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
UB Pork Trimmings - 72% Trim Combo - (TL) EBP
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
UB Pork Belly - Derind Belly 11-13# - (TL) EBP
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
Top 3 Takeaways
- EU pork is cheap but recovering: EU pig prices hit a multi-year low (−15.91% YoY) but rebounded sharply in Feb (+8.59% MoM), signalling potential supply tightening after prolonged oversupply.
- US pork belly surging: Belly prices jumped +11.77% MoM and +9.19% YoY — driven by foodservice and retail demand recovery, with bacon a key demand driver.
- EU vs US divergence: EU prices remain deeply negative YoY while all three US pork indicators are positive YoY, reflecting different demand recovery trajectories and feed cost dynamics.
US-Iran War Impact
- Rising diesel prices (+29–49% MoM) will increase cold chain and refrigerated trucking costs for pork distribution. EU pork may face export disruption if Middle East buyers reduce imports during the conflict. Broader feed grain inflationary pressure from energy costs will squeeze processor margins.
Pork
Price forecast
Bellies, Butts, and Trimmings are not moving together. They are experiencing different price pressures and need to be looked at individually.
UB Pork Belly - Derind Belly 11-13# - (TL) EBP
- Derind bellies are in an uptrend and are now nearing a temporary peak.
- Technically, prices are in a confirmed uptrend but could experience some sideways price pressure before continuing higher into summer.
- Frozen pork belly inventories are higher year-on-year as of January 2026 but are below the historical average for the month. This supports the seasonal upswing.
- A hedge was initiated in late January to cover the seasonal increase.
UB Pork Butt - 1/4 Trimmed Butt VAC - (TL) EBP
- Pork Butts are beginning to increase toward the summer peak. A hedge was initiated to cover the coming increase.
- Prices are expected to increase into late Q2 or early Q3 2026.
- Technically, prices have crossed above the moving average, and the trend is confirmed by the MACD crossing above its dotted signal line.
- Overall, this forecast is supported by the technical analysis and the regression model, which suggests that prices are unsustainably low and need to increase from a fundamental perspective.
UB Pork Trimmings - 72% Trim Combo - (TL) EBP
- Pork Trimmings have continued to increase and are expected to reach a peak in the coming days/weeks.
- Technically, prices have crossed above the moving average, and the trend is confirmed by the MACD crossing above its dotted signal line.
- A bearish divergence is on the chart, suggesting that downward pressure is building. The market could experience some sideways price action before continuing higher to its usual summer peak.
- According to the USDA, trimmings in cold storage are at the lowest level observed in January in the last five years. This supports the uptrend.
- A hedge was initiated following the pullback in February to cover the seasonal increase.
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