Salmon
Salmon
Price movements
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Urner Barry Fresh Farmed Salmon Index
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
Chile - Salmon, Farmed, Fillet, Fresh, Atl., D-Trim, FOB Miami, 3-4 lbs.
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
Norway - Salmon Farm 3-6kg FPI
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
Top 3 Takeaways
- Norwegian salmon in strong recovery: Norwegian FPI surged +7.58% MoM and +12.17% YoY, returning to 2024 peak levels as tight supply from biological constraints (sea lice, algal blooms) meets robust European demand.
- Chilean salmon competitive on value: Chilean FOB Miami fillets at $6.38/lb are notably cheaper than Norwegian equivalents, reflecting Chile's ability to ramp volumes and supply the US market efficiently.
- Global index confirms broad rally: The Urner Barry Index at $7.09/lb (+8.58% YoY) validates the trend across origins — salmon is in a genuine supply-constrained bull cycle heading into 2026.
US-Iran War Impact
- Lower direct impact — Norwegian and Chilean trade routes don't pass through the Strait of Hormuz. However, rising energy costs increase salmon farming operational expenses. Dubai air cargo route closures disrupt premium fresh salmon distribution to Gulf foodservice customers. Bunker fuel increases add marginally to transatlantic shipping costs.
Salmon
Price forecast
UB Salmon, Farmed, Fillet, Fresh, Chile Atl., D-Trim, FOB Miami, 3-4 lbs. EBP
- Chilean salmon prices have been rising in line with our forecast, increasing by more than 27% since late November to USD 6.30/lb.
- Seasonal trends show that prices typically increase from now into an April peak, indicating a short-term upside risk. However, the upside potential is considered somewhat limited, especially given that prices are slightly overvalued relative to our regression-estimated range.
- Technical indicators show an overbought RSI with negative divergence, signalling a potential peak leading to a temporary price decline after the seasonal peak.
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