Shrimp
Shrimp
Price movements
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Latin America - HLSO, Farm Raised, White, 21-25 Count
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
Latin America - HLSO, Farm Raised, White, 41-50 Count
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
Asia - HLSO, Farm Raised, White, 21-25 Count
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
Asia - Farm Raised, Raw P&D, Tail-On, White, 16-20..
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
Asia - Farm Raised, Raw P&D, Tail-Off, White, 16-20 Count
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
Top 3 Takeaways
- Asian value-added shrimp outperforming: Asian P&D shrimp (16-20ct) are up +18% YoY, commanding a strong premium versus raw HLSO product which is broadly flat YoY — value-added processing is capturing the margin.
- Latin American shrimp under pressure: Both LatAm HLSO benchmarks are negative MoM, reflecting production cost pressures and currency headwinds in Ecuador and other key producing nations.
- Count size premiums widening: Jumbo counts (16-20) at $6+ vs commodity 41-50 counts at $3.50 — reflects restaurant sector preference for premium shrimp as foodservice recovers.
US-Iran War Impact
- Shrimp supply chains from Asia and Latin America don't route through the Strait of Hormuz, but higher bunker fuel costs (Fujairah MGO has doubled MoM) will raise shipping costs on Asia-US and Asia-EU lanes. Air freight disruption through Dubai affects premium chilled shrimp exports to Europe and the Gulf.
Shrimp
Price forecast
UB Shrimp, HLSO, Farm Raised, Asian, White, 21-25 Count EBP
- Tariffs had a considerable impact on Shrimp prices in 2025, particularly on product from Asia, where higher rates were previously applied, including 50% on India. Towards the end of 2025, we saw some of the price increases erased, amid weak seasonal demand, and that has continued into the new year.
- That weakness has continued throughout Q1, and we could still see some further declines in the near term. The regression has been falling since May 2025, exerting downward pressure and supporting the current price decline.
- From a technical perspective, Asian HLSO 21-25 count is in a short-term downtrend, but a bullish divergence may signal that downward pressure is subsiding.
UB Shrimp, HLSO, Farm Raised, Latin America, White, 41-50 Count EBP
- More favourable tariff rates led to more modest price increases on Latin American shrimp compared with product from Asia last year.
- That said, we still saw a seasonal decline towards the end of 2025, and that price softness has continued in Q1. Most of the short-term decline has likely already occurred, though.
- Technical analysis indicates that the HLSO Latin America 41-50 count is in a short-term downtrend, but a bullish divergence may be forming, potentially signalling waning near-term downward pressure.
UB Shrimp, Farm Raised, Asian, Raw P&D, Tail-On, White, 16-20 Count EBP
- P&D Shrimp from Asia experienced a sharper price increase in 2025 compared with HLSO due to the inability of importers to easily pivot from higher-tariff nations. As a result, seasonal price weakness was more subdued, prior to the recent tariff changes, after which further declines have been seen.
- We could see further weakness in the short term, although price declines are expected to be relatively small, which is supported by our fundamental regression model.
- From a technical perspective, Asian P&D 16-20 count is now in a short-term Downtrend, but a bullish divergence is forming which may point to some upward pressure building going into early Q2.
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