Milk
Milk
Price movements (monthly)
Milk fresh 4.0% fat EXW DE (EBP)
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
Milk fresh class III CME US
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
- The Expana Benchmark Price (EBP) for Milk EXW Germany was assessed at €460/mt on July 31, down by €80/mt on the month.
- While milk intakes continued to showcase a slight seasonal decrease, according to industry sources, favorable weather conditions throughout the month supported output, resulting in weaker than expected seasonal drop. Due to limited demand and reduced processing capacity, linked to the summer holiday period, spot milk prices declined throughout the month.
- The front-month price for fresh Class III Milk futures on the CME US closed at $0.17/lb on July 31, down by $0.02/lb from the previous month.
- Heading into the summer months, milk production has remained elevated, with farms recovering from HPAI and farmers being encouraged to grow their herds to support new and expanding processing capabilities across the country, weighing on prices.
Milk
Price drivers
↓ Logistics
The shipping 40ft container composite fell by 21% M-O-M and 55% Y-O-Y to $2,651 per unit in July. The bulk of container loading already took place in April–June in anticipation of tariff increases, so demand for transportation declined in July. The peak season turned out to be short and weak, especially for small and medium-sized businesses, which are not prepared to pay higher duties. Despite seasonal growth on routes to Europe and the Mediterranean, excess capacity and logistical restructuring led to a decline in rates from June peaks.
↑ Feed Costs
Feed grains are a significant component of livestock production costs. As a result, any price increase in maize (corn) and wheat could push prices of animal protein upward.
EU wheat prices declined following rising production forecasts in France and Germany. However, there are rising concerns over yield in Russia and Ukraine.
Corn prices increased in July 2025 with concerns over hot and dry weather in the EU. The recent JRC MARS report outlined concerns of water deficits and heat stress, particularly in southwestern France, Romania and Bulgaria.
↑ Energy Prices
Growth in industrial consumption was the main driver of electricity price increases in the US and the EU. In addition, the hot July also stimulated increased electricity consumption by households.
The Electricity index Europe rose by 18% M-O-M. US industrial electricity prices rose by 3% M-O-M.
↑ Currency Exchange Rates
In July 2025, the USD rose against the EUR by 2.1% M-O-M and 6.1% Y-O-Y rreversing earlier losses, due to a confluence of economic, monetary, and geopolitical factors.
A trade agreement between the U.S. and EU, strong GDP rebound in Q2-2025, and elevated U.S. yields removed the uncertainty from the US market.
Growth in the eurozone remained sluggish, particularly in Germany and France. Consumer demand softened, and business confidence dipped. These signs of economic stagnation pressured the euro, especially as US economic data showed a stronger-than-expected rebound.
Milk
Price forecast
We have seen the price of milk EU decrease recently and re-enter the previous downtrend. However, likely prices are moving within a significant trend channel. Thus, the downtrend is not as strong. The decline is likely fuelled by a higher availability than usual and a lower demand from producers. We expect the decline to continue in August as many companies are still in holiday mode. Once the low is over, we should prices increase towards a seasonal peak in the Fall. There, prices tend to stagnate for a short while before a new decline towards Spring.
Fundamentally, we should see an underlying upward pressure on prices until Q4. As mentioned, milk prices have a strong seasonal pattern, which is pushing for higher prices until Fall. Furthermore, we have previously seen this year that the fat content of milk has been low, which is something to look out for in the remainder of 2025. If the fat content remains low, we could see prices increase more than originally expected. We have also seen the spread of various diseases in cattle, such as blue tongue virus and foot-and-mouth disease, which impact milk output. If this trend continues for the remainder of the year, prices are likely to be pushed even higher.
However, the macro economy does indicate that we should overall see decreasing prices. Thus, the expected increase is unlikely to surpass the high reached in late November 2024.
We have seen the price of milk EU decrease recently and re-enter the previous downtrend. However, likely prices are moving within a significant trend channel. Thus, the downtrend is not as strong. The decline is likely fuelled by a higher availability than usual and a lower demand from producers. We expect the decline to continue in August as many companies are still in holiday mode. Once the low is over, we should prices increase towards a seasonal peak in the Fall. There, prices tend to stagnate for a short while before a new decline towards Spring.
Fundamentally, we should see an underlying upward pressure on prices until Q4. As mentioned, milk prices have a strong seasonal pattern, which is pushing for higher prices until Fall. Furthermore, we have previously seen this year that the fat content of milk has been low, which is something to look out for in the remainder of 2025. If the fat content remains low, we could see prices increase more than originally expected. We have also seen the spread of various diseases in cattle, such as blue tongue virus and foot-and-mouth disease, which impact milk output. If this trend continues for the remainder of the year, prices are likely to be pushed even higher.
However, the macro economy does indicate that we should overall see decreasing prices. Thus, the expected increase is unlikely to surpass the high reached in late November 2024.
Milk
Market sentiment (for the month ahead)
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