Orange juice
Orange Juice
Price movements (monthly)
Brazilian Orange Juice
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
US Orange Juice
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
- Brazilian orange juice prices fell by 23.1% through Q2 2025, to $4,000/mt in June.
- Demand for orange juice dropped significantly following a period of high prices. Market players have reported to Expana that the low demand persists.
- Weather conditions for the 2025/26 orange crop have been favorable, and sources expect Brazil to crush significant quantities.
- The US ICE NY orange juice spot futures price decreased by 5.6% in Q2 with the average price for June at Usc 255.83/lb down by 40.1% year-on-year (y-o-y).
- The ongoing price decline is driven by low demand globally for orange juice concentrate alongside prospects of a better crop in Brazil in the 2025/26 season.
- Although production forecasts are historically low, sources speculate that an upward revision to the USDA’s 2024/25 outlook for Florida could indicate a possible recovery for the state, which has struggled with hurricanes and disease.
Orange Juice
Price drivers
↓ Macroeconomic Factors
In the US, the CPI accelerated to 2.4% y-o-y in May, up from 2.3% in April. The figure was below market expectations of 2.5%.
In the Eurozone, the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) decelerated markedly to 1.9% y-o-y in May, down from 2.2% in the previous month, moving below the European Central Bank’s (ECB) 2% target for the first time in around four years.
In May, the headline CPI in China was –0.1% on an annualized basis, with the y-o-y rate of decline unchanged compared to April. Market sources believed the decline was chiefly due to a marked fall in energy prices, including crude oil.
↑ Input Costs
Average labor costs in Florida dropped in April (latest data) by 0.59% m-o-m, to $35.34/hr. Y-o-y, the cost of labor increased by 2.94%.
↑ Rising Energy Prices
Throughout June, crude oil prices rose due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, specifically missile strikes between Israel and Iran. Players in the crude oil market were concerned throughout the month about supply disruption, especially following the use of ‘bunker buster’ bombs by the US on Iran.
Natural gas prices moved upwards in the EU throughout June due to supply concerns emanating from the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. Furthermore, hotter weather resulted in greater cooling demand.
↓ Consumer Trends
According to market players, higher orange juice prices in 2024 were passed on at the retailer level to consumers, adversely impacting consumption in both the EU and US, which is yet to recover.
Manufacturers are blending juices with less orange juice content to keep price-sensitive consumers interested in their products
Orange Juice
Price forecast
Orange juice prices have experienced periods of significant volatility following a steep decline at the start of 2025. The fear of repercussions of the tariffs on Brazil has seen the market rally from 200 to 340, before dropping back to 230 in the space of a month. This period is seen as part of a volatile correction that began at target 23, and the expectation is that this could continue slightly longer. Overall, the fundamentals remain bearish as prices are a long way above the fair band. This bubble means that there is a downward pressure ultimately from the fundamentals. From a seasonal perspective, prices often peak in October. We are monitoring the risk of a short period of upward price action.
Turning to the technical analysis, prices are in a long-term downtrend, which essentially means the direction over the coming years is likely to be lower. However, this will not happen without corrective periods and often significant corrections. While the price is below the moving average and the MACD remains below the signal line, any upward price action is deemed to be just a temporary move.
Orange Juice
Market sentiment (for the month ahead)
Tight global stocks
There are some discrepancies among market players regarding forecasts for final ending stocks, with some estimates coming out higher than last year. Sources expect purchasing/tenders throughout the marketing year to dictate the final figure and any price movement that could come as a result.
↓ Increased Global production
Global barley production is forecasted by the USDA to increase by 2.4 million mt to a total of 145.8 million mt in the 2025/2026 season. Market players say that the expected jump in production is due to a rebound from adverse weather conditions in the previous marketing year. Sources stated that better soil moisture in Russia and consistent rainfall in most of Europe (although northern parts are becoming a concern) drove production estimate increases in 2025/2026. Sources say that if trends of increasing production continue, it could weigh on prices.
↑ Dryness in Ukraine
Sources say that between March and June, Ukraine experienced substantial precipitation deficits, with below usual rainfall throughout the period and unexpected frosts in May driving concerns in the market. As a result, the USDA has forecasted a slightly smaller crop in Ukraine (see page 5) . Furthermore, sources believe that China’s demand for Ukrainian barley will increase in the 2025/2026 season, citing purchases of around 500,000 mt (as of May 22). Market participants believe that this could lend some support to prices.
↑ Increased demand
Market players believe that among the top importers, there will be a push to secure supplies in the 2025/2026 season. Industry insiders believe that China are likely to increase purchases to replenish stockpiles, and that this could also be the case for Turkey, as domestic production is expected to decrease and imports are projected from the USDA to increase by up to 850,000 mt in 2025/2026. Market players suggest that this could lend some support to prices, provided that decreased demand from the Middle East, due to higher corn availability for feed as opposed to barley, does not offset potential demand increases from China or Turkey.
↑ World Barley Stocks Lowest since 2005/2006
According to market players, 2024/2025 Global barley stocks are still expected to conclude at their lowest level since 2005/2006. Sources believe that this is due to barley prices remaining competitive throughout the season despite smaller (2024/2025) global harvests. For 2025/2026, ending stocks are projected at the same level amid a slight uptick in production. Market players believe that increases in demand, alongside a tighter balance sheet, could lend support to prices.
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