Milk powder
Milk powder
Price movements (monthly)
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Skimmed Milk Powder EU
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
Whole Milk Powder EU
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
NonFat Dried Milk US
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
- The Expana Benchmark Prices (EBP) for Whole Milk Powder (WMP) spray EXW Europe was last assessed on July 31, at €4,250/mt, up €50/mt month-on-month (M-O-M).
- While EU WMP prices increased during July, market activity was reported as lackluster, which can be attributed to the summer holiday period. However, steady domestic demand, even at weak levels, supported a slight upward price movement during the month.
- International demand for EU WMP was reported as weak due to uncompetitive EU price levels.
- Supply was reported as adequate during the month, with steady production output reported. However, due to uncertain demand expectations, producers are unwilling to build up stock levels unless the volumes are already committed in contracts.
- The EBP for Skimmed Milk Powder (SMP) EXW Europe was assessed at €2,350/mt on July 31, up by €50/mt on the month.
- Spot demand held steady during July. Market activity was reported as weak during the month, linked to the summer holiday period. Market participants reported continued buying interest for SMP during July.
- Supply levels remain tight while stock levels increased during late Q2 and early Q3. Reported volumes remain below the previous year’s levels.
- Fresh SMP production remained steady. Other production streams, such as cheese and whey, offer higher returns. Supply uncertainty among SMP and butter for Q4 is encouraging processors to channel milk into this production stream.
- The EBP for Nonfat Dried Milk US was assessed at $1.87/lbs. on July 31, up $0.01/lb on the month.
- The market sentiment for NFDM was reported as neutral to bullish on the month, with steady domestic demand and increasing export demand primarily from Mexico.
- Stock levels have been reported as stable to light with some tightness in the southern region. Production was up for the month of July, with California ramping up production.
Milk powder
Price drivers
↓ Logistics
The shipping 40ft container composite fell by 21% M-O-M and 55% Y-O-Y to $2,651 per unit in July. The bulk of container loading already took place in April–June in anticipation of tariff increases, so demand for transportation declined in July. The peak season turned out to be short and weak, especially for small and medium-sized businesses, which are not prepared to pay higher duties. Despite seasonal growth on routes to Europe and the Mediterranean, excess capacity and logistical restructuring led to a decline in rates from June peaks.
↑ Feed Costs
Feed grains are a significant component of livestock production costs. As a result, any price increase in maize (corn) and wheat could push prices of animal protein upward.
EU wheat prices declined following rising production forecasts in France and Germany. However, there are rising concerns over yield in Russia and Ukraine.
Corn prices increased in July 2025 with concerns over hot and dry weather in the EU. The recent JRC MARS report outlined concerns of water deficits and heat stress, particularly in southwestern France, Romania and Bulgaria.
↑ Energy Prices
Growth in industrial consumption was the main driver of electricity price increases in the US and the EU. In addition, the hot July also stimulated increased electricity consumption by households.
The Electricity index Europe rose by 18% M-O-M. US industrial electricity prices rose by 3% M-O-M.
↑ Currency Exchange Rates
In July 2025, the USD rose against the EUR by 2.1% M-O-M and 6.1% Y-O-Y rreversing earlier losses, due to a confluence of economic, monetary, and geopolitical factors.
A trade agreement between the U.S. and EU, strong GDP rebound in Q2-2025, and elevated U.S. yields removed the uncertainty from the US market.
Growth in the eurozone remained sluggish, particularly in Germany and France. Consumer demand softened, and business confidence dipped. These signs of economic stagnation pressured the euro, especially as US economic data showed a stronger-than-expected rebound.
Whole milk powder
Price forecast
We have seen the price of whole milk powder NZ increase recently, following our expectations of an upward correction in late summer. The price remains in a confirmed downtrend, indicating that the current increase is likely only temporary. Therefore, the risk remains to the downside. Seasonally, prices do tend to increase as a low around
early summer. Thus, prices are currently following the usual pattern. Furthermore, futures contracts are in backwardation, indicating an expectation of lower prices in the months to come. This adds to the expected downward pressure.
One thing we are keeping an eye out for is China. We have seen China increase its production of milk powders over the last couple of years to reduce its reliance on imports, such as whole milk powder. However, Chinese consumers remain hesitant to buy locally produced milk powders due to previous incidents. Therefore, we still see a significant demand from other parts of the world. Furthermore, with the current tariffs between the US and China, China may focus on other markets to meet its need for milk powders. Thus, we could see an increased export from New Zealand to China, which in turn could put upward pressure on prices. We also hear that Australia is experiencing both droughts and floods in different parts of the country, which could also affect prices for New Zealand dairy products.
Skimmed milk powder
Price forecast
Milk powder
Market sentiment (for the month ahead)
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