Plastic
Plastic
Price movements (monthly)
LDPE
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
HDPE
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
PET
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
PP
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
PVC
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
PS
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
- Mill closures have removed roughly 6% of containerboard capacity from the market since the beginning of this year.
- One market participant noted uncertainty about downstream demand from both domestic and export customers as the source for downward pricing pressure.
- Sources indicated that demand for kraftliner has softened due to increasing preferences for recycled materials.
- Testliner prices remained flat m-o-m with continued containerboard capacity adjustments helping to maintain current pricing levels.
- Pricing for old corrugated containers (OCC), a key input for testliner, has gone up only 0.3% from June to July, which indicates that demand has stabilized, according to sources.
- Cartonboard pricing began to diverge in July, with coated unbleached kraft (CUK) boxboard jumping 3.0% m-o-m while solid bleached board (SBB) remained flat for the month.
- Price increases by Graphic Packaging were responsible for the upward movement in pricing in July, according to sources.
Plastic
Price drivers
↑ Ethylene
Demand for ethylene increased throughout July to cater for the manufacturing of LDPE and HDPE. Although supply remains ample, sources anticipate higher demand in the coming months in line with seasonal trends.
↓ Propylene
The propylene market remains weak, according to market participants, especially in the US. Sources await further developments in trade talks between the US and other states and seek greater certainty within the international market.
↑ Paraxylene
The global paraxylene market largely moved sideways throughout July, with sentiment mostly still bullish. However, demand from PET producers has been lukewarm despite the expected seasonal uptick in demand, according to market players.
→ Crude Oil
Hourly earnings growth for employees in manufacturing decreased by 0.1% m-o-m and 3.5% y-o-y in June. The unemployment rate for the US manufacturing sector jumped from May to June from 3.6% to 4.2%.
Wage growth again dipped into negative territory, which is typically a sign of a slowdown in production for the manufacturing sector.
↓ Logistics
The shipping 40ft container composite fell by 21% m-o-m and 55% y-o-y to $2,651 per unit in July. The bulk of container loading already took place in April–June in anticipation of tariff increases, so demand for transportation declined in July. The peak season turned out to be short and weak, especially for small and medium-sized businesses, which are not prepared to pay higher duties. Despite seasonal growth on routes to Europe and the Mediterranean, excess capacity and logistical restructuring led to a decline in rates from June peaks.
→ Macroeconomic Environment
In the US, inflation accelerated 2.7% on an annualized basis in June, up from 2.4% in May. Energy services, including electricity and piped gas, were the main drivers behind the headline increase, registering a 7.5% y-o-y acceleration.
In the Eurozone, inflation edged up to 2.0% in June, up from 1.9% in May. The result is in line with the European Central Bank (ECB) target.
In China, inflation was 0.1% y-o-y, up from –0.1% in May and ending the 4-month period of deflation. Sources believe that the acceleration was attributable to recent government stimulus policies aimed at boosting domestic demand against the backdrop of declining export demand due to tariff uncertainty.
Plastic
Price forecast: PET
Our macroeconomic analysis based on the PMI has indicated a downturn in the economy following a peak in the first quarter of 2025. The analysis appears to be on track, and if we are correct, downward pressure will be present in most plastic resins for most of the second half of 2025. Whether an escalation of developments in the Middle East can offset this, only time will tell, but close attention to any crude-related market is needed, as things can change quickly. Oil prices have already increased significantly, and a further escalation is likely to result in additional increases. Increasing oil prices will drive up production costs for plastic resins, and this will, in due course, push for higher plastic resin prices.
Generally speaking, plastic resin prices in Europe and China tend to follow a similar trend. This has also been the case recently, so any of the comments below will broadly apply to both markets. Chinese prices tend to lead European prices.
PET prices have fallen in small increments after reaching an intermediate peak in the Spring of 2024. Based on our models, PET (EU) prices are fundamentally fair but relatively low (Prices have almost halved since the summer 2022 peak), and this indicates that the downside is getting limited. Usually, the seasonal price pressure is weak during most of the second half of the year but ultimately leads to a yearly low in December. This would indicate a continued downward pressure, but with PET prices closely linked to crude oil prices, the developments in the Middle East can offset the usual seasonal pressure. The situation is much the same for PET (EU) and PET (CN).
Plastic
Price forecast: PP
PP(EU) prices have fluctuated within a narrow span since reaching a peak in the Spring of 2024. Only recently has the weakness shown determination. Like most other plastic resins, our models have shown a favoured weakness following a Spring peak, and a seasonal downward pressure is likely a contributing factor to the decline. A summer low is in sight, and it is still possible for the weakness to continue into the latter part of 2025. However, all crude-related markets require close attention, as things can change rapidly. The situation is much the same for PP (EU) and PP (CN).
Contrary to most other plastic resins, PE (EU) prices have continued to rise until recently. Our analysis indicates that the prolonged uptrend has ended, and the question now is how low prices will go.
Our models suggest that PE prices are high from a combined fundamental view, and this leaves room for some downside price action. Seasonality pushes down initially in the second half of 2025, but the seasonal pressure weakens following an August low. Cost drivers for PE are similar to those of other resins derived from crude oil. With the risk potentially shifting to the upside in crude oil, PE prices are likely not going unnoticed. This means that any unexpected development will likely result in a shorter and weaker down-move, which could lead to a reversal to the upside at some point in the second half of 2025. The situation is much the same for PE (EU) and PE (CN).
Plastic
Market sentiment (for the month ahead)
Trusted by industry leaders
About Expana
Expana is the world's largest IOSCO-certified commodity price reporting database.
With 34,000+ verified commodity prices and 1,500 price forecasts across agrifood and industrial markets, you can enhance price visibility throughout your supply chain, reduce costs, lower COGS, and mitigate risk.
Brands by Expana: Mintec Analytics, Urner Barry, Feed Info, Stratégie Grains, Tropical Research Services
Disclaimer
Any forward-looking statements are the views and expectations of the individual market participants. Expana does not have a forward-looking view within this report or associated content. To the extent legally permissible, Expana shall not be liable and disclaims and excludes any and all liability (whether direct or indirect), nor shall Expana be liable in contract, tort (including negligence), misrepresentation (whether innocent or negligent), restitution or otherwise. No information (whether written, electronic or oral) made available herein constitutes or is to be taken as constituting or the giving of investment or financial advice by Expana, or any of its affiliates or their employees to any person, organisation or entity. Any use or reliance on the information and any suggestions, insights or guidance made against such content is entirely at your own risk.
For details on the methodology used to assess the Expana Benchmark Prices, visit this link.