Wheat
Wheat
Price movements (monthly)
Euronext Futures Prices
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
CBOT Futures Prices
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
- The Euronext milling wheat futures price decreased by €2.25/mt m-o-m to €195.75/mt, while the CBOT wheat futures price decreased by $12.27/mt to $186.75/mt.
- This month, market sources have primarily credited downward price movements on the Euronext and CBOT to increasing supply prospects as harvests approach their conclusion while maintaining adequate pace, besides in some black sea producers such as Ukraine and Russia.
- Sources said that disappointing yields in Ukraine and Russia have been largely priced in but could had lent some support to futures amid primarily bearish fundamentals.
Wheat
Price drivers
↓ Macroeconomic Environment
The Brent crude oil price [Expana code: BCRD] decreased by 4.7% m-o-m in July to $66.89/barrel. Market players said that stronger import demand for crude oil lent some support to prices throughout July. However, increased output by OPEC added more supply to the global market and lower imports into China by an estimated 5.4% overturned gains.
EU natural gas prices fell by 3.06% m-o-m in July to €33.28/MWh. Expana learnt from market players that natural gas prices fell this month in line with seasonal trends, as demand for cooling lowered amid a decline in temperatures across the continent. Sources added that a surge in Russian pipeline deliveries to Europe also weighed on prices.
↓ Logistics
The shipping 40ft container composite index decreased by 11.15% m-o-m to $2,498.64 per unit in July. Year-on-year, prices have declined by 56.44%.
Industry insiders noted that larger than usual volumes of container loading occurred between April and June in anticipation of tariff increases, leading to a drop in July demand, this has been primarily credited towards price decline this month.
↑ Fertilizer Cost
NPK Fertilizer [Expana code: 2H45] costs were €593/mt as of August 06, 2025, up 1.58% m-o-m and 16.32% year-on-year.
Market players told Expana that the cost of mixed NPK blend fertilizers rose in July, largely driven by high input costs from spikes in energy prices (Feb/Mar) which have increased manufacturing expenses. Sources added that export controls, namely from major producers like China, have tightened global availability, propping up prices.
Wheat
Price forecast
The wheat market currently shows weakness, with significant declines observed for both EU and US wheat. Euronext wheat prices have been falling since early 2025, and the fundamentals indicate that further price drops could occur as seasonally prices drop to an August low. However, prices are already seen as undervalued, which suggests that the potential for further decline may be limited.
According to USDA projections for the 2025/26 marketing year, global wheat ending stocks are projected to decline year-on-year, which could create upward pressure on prices. Conversely, ending stocks for both the EU and the US are forecasted to increase. As a result, while we anticipate a price increase—potentially lasting into late 2025—the increase in inventory for both regions is likely to restrict the extent of this price rise.
Overall, we expect a price recovery for both EU and US wheat. This situation will necessitate a comprehensive hedge to manage the associated upside risk. The current tariff situation continues to create uncertainty in the market, with talks between the US and China still happening. This means the tariff situation remains fluid potentially impacting the outlook.
We will closely monitor the market for signs that it has reached its bottom and that a price recovery is underway. For the time being, the market remains in a downtrend, suggesting that additional declines may occur, potentially leading to a low point in Q3.
Wheat
Market sentiment: Australia, Russia and EU
Large Global Supply
Market players said abundant global supply will likely be the key price driver in the near term, and subdued trading activity as harvests conclude could limit price support unless weather related.
↓ Optimism Increasing in Australia
Throughout July, sources familiar with the situation in Australia told Expana that rains were reported across key growing regions, excluding some parts of western Australia. Sources added that the rainfall has been very beneficial for crops and has boosted yields in areas which had been previously dry, like Victoria and South Australia. With renewed optimism in the market, sources believe prices could be pressures in the near term. Estimates among traders for total production are between 33 and 34 million mt.
↑ Slower Harvesting Pace in Russia
Throughout July, sources had reported that the wheat harvest in Russia has been progressing at a slower than usual pace, Earlier in the month (July 11), sources had suggested that harvesting was up to 56% behind. Some market players believe that concerns of lower yields have added some support to markets, but the overall tone remains bearish. Currently, IKAR forecast a total crop of 84 million mt. market players believe this could be lowered soon to an estimated 35 million mt.
↓ Low Demand and Sluggish EU exports
The European commission estimate total wheat production to reach 127.3 million mt in the 2025/2026 season. Sources say that a dip in demand, coupled with higher output, could provide a largely bearish outlook for the month ahead. Signaling lower demand, the USDA estimate total wheat exports leaving the the EU to drop by 2 million mt to 32.5 million mt in the 2025/2026 season. According to analysts, declines in purchases from China and north African countries this month supported the bearish sentiment further.
↓ Bumper Crop in France
France, the EU’s largest wheat producer, is expected to harvest a significantly larger soft wheat crop in the 2025/2026 marketing year. The European Commission projects output at 23.55 million metric tons (mt), while FranceAgriMer places its estimate slightly higher at 32.6 million mt, a 27% increase year-on-year, following a rain-hit 2024/2025 harvest. Market sources believe that this could weigh on prices unless demand increases.
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