Beef
Beef
Price movements (monthly)
veniam aute
Occaecat et deserunt esse duis nulla.
veniam aute
Occaecat et deserunt esse duis nulla.
Beef Lip-On Boneless
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
Beef Loin, Tenderloin
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
Beef Lip-On Boneless
EU
EU beef supplies are expected to decline further in 2025, reflecting the ongoing reduction in suckler cow herds. The contraction is being driven by continued profitability challenges faced by producers and by tightening sustainability and environmental compliance standards across the region.
Record-high beef prices are dampening demand, as consumers increasingly shift toward alternative protein sources, such as eggs and chicken.
US
The US boxed beef market entered a period of correction in early October following September’s declines. Cash cattle prices have held mostly steady with light volumes being traded, and the boxed beef industry continues to await a meaningful shift in temperatures to help stimulate fall buying interest. In an effort to bolster margins amid subdued buying interest, sellers have scaled back slaughter schedules, along with multiple facilities undergoing cooler cleanings during this slower demand window. These production cutbacks have resulted in tighter inventories, which appear to be adequately balanced with the current level of demand, keeping overall market tones steady throughout October.
Beef Loin, Tenderloin
EU
In October, the average price of beef in the European Union declined by 0.69% M-O-M, reaching €7,164.97 per metric ton as market sentiment turned bearish, driven by subdued demand. This weakening in demand is driven prolonged period of historically high prices, which has curtailed consumer purchasing activity and dampened overall market momentum.
Market sources regard the M-O-M decline as temporary, attributing the sustained year Y-O-Y price strength primarily to persistent supply-side constraints.
US
The price of live cattle in the US decreased by 2.0% M-O-M in October 2025 to $2.35/lbs. This was still up by 25% Y-O-Y.
The pace of cattle slaughter continued below year-ago levels, falling by 3.1% year to date (YTD) through the week of October 20. Due to the government shutdown, the average dressed steer weight data was not available for October.
The USDA estimated 2025 beef production numbers are also unavailable due to the government shutdown as of 10/30/2025.
October Monthly Cattle Price
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
Beef
Price forecast
The price of Lip-On is 14.25, which is above the regression fair value range of 10.13-11.95 USD/lb by 2.30 USD/lb or 19%. The fair value range has been increasing, though, indicating there is underlying upward price pressure. However, it is still considered too high from a fundamental perspective.
Supply/demand dynamics in the beef and veal market have exerted upward pressure on the price of Lip-on over the last couple of years, with the USDA forecasting the trend to continue through the remainder of 2025, further supporting higher prices. Especially at a time when consumption-adjusted beef and cattle inventories in the US are at multi-decade lows and expected to decline further this year, according to the USDA.
The impact has been evident in non-commercial net speculative positioning in US beef and live cattle, which has remained very long throughout 2025, an unusual period of time for that to be the case. That said, we have seen lower peaks in net positioning over that time, which may indicate the market is becoming less bullish on the price.
Lip-on prices typically experience a seasonal increase until November, followed by a decline into the new year, which is consistent with our forecast. Technical indicators are also giving similar signals, although we are still awaiting confirmation of the peak being in place. A bearish divergence on the long-term chart supports the view that the increase that started in the summer of 2024 is losing momentum.
In summary, market dynamics have enabled prices to increase significantly in recent years, but there are signs of a temporary peak being in place, enabling a seasonal decline into Q1 2026.
The price of Beef Tenderloin has increased in recent months, reaching 20.12 USD/lb in Q4, consistent with our forecast. The current price, 19.30 USD/lb, is significantly above the regression fair band of 10.99-13.42 USD/lb by 44%, exerting a downward pressure on the price of Tenderloin.
Furthermore, Tenderloin prices typically see a seasonal increase to November before declining into the new year. This is consistent with our forecast of a price decline going into Q1 2026.
Prices have increased to historical highs this year, which has coincided with speculative positioning in the US beef and live cattle market being very net long throughout 2025. An unusual amount of time for net positioning to be so long. That said, the peaks in net long positioning have been declining slightly, possibly indicating a less bullish market view.
The US beef and veal supply/demand balance (in percent of demand) has been declining since the end of 2022, and the USDA expects that to continue into the end of 2025. At the same time, the USDA expects US consumption-adjusted beef and cattle inventories, which are already at multi-decade lows, to continue declining into the end of 2025. The combination of declining supply, relative to demand, and low inventories have supported the price rise in Tenderloin.
From a technical standpoint, the price of Beef Tenderloin appears to have peaked in Q4. Confirming indicators aren’t in place yet, but we expect they will be soon, and once they are, we anticipate a decline, in line with seasonal trends, into Q1.
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