Chicken
Chicken
Price movements (monthly)
US Chicken
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
US
Thigh Meat
In a continuation of the macro downtrend first established back in June, chicken thigh meat struggled to find marketing momentum throughout October, with spot values retreating $0.42/lb. between the beginning and end of the month. Here, a mix of seasonality, fully adequate production levels, and price-sensitive purchasers provided very little in the way of price support to this line. That said, selling sentiment toward the end of October took on a less bearish position, driven by less burdensome supplies.
Boneless Breast
After a multi-month downtrend in spot valuation, the jumbo boneless breast complex confirmed support at the $1.21/lb. level by early October. While market-swaying trade activity was much less volatile than it was in the recent past, spot demand was consistent enough to lend balance to the uptick in headcount and heavy-trending average live weights. By month's end, this line experienced a modest $0.01/lb. price advance, which was enough to position this quotation as the second highest seasonal level in the past decade.
Wings
Keeping in line with the previous month, chicken wings struggled to attract a seasonal call. A combination of fully adequate supplies and a lackluster call out of traditional foodservice and retail purchasing channels continued to result in slight price erosion throughout the month. Coming in at $0.94/lb., October’s ending jumbo wing quotation fell below that of the previous ten years. In the same breath, some marketers maintain a cautiously optimistic sentiment given the relatively attractive value proposition of the wing complex.
EU
Polish poultry prices declined marginally across most product categories during the reporting period. Market participants report that breast meat prices decreased as processors liquidated existing inventory. However, prices are expected to recover in the coming weeks as additional cases of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) and Newcastle disease emerge across the country. Processors are anticipated to secure stock positions if outbreak frequency continues to escalate. Export demand for Polish chicken remains robust, supported by reduced supplies from Dutch and Ukrainian markets to the EU. However, persistent disease outbreaks could significantly constrain export potential and limit Poland's competitive advantage in regional markets.
Industry participants anticipate these outbreaks will trigger immediate trade restrictions, potentially threatening Poland's access to lucrative export markets. The combined impact of both diseases presents significant challenges for maintaining production levels and export competitiveness through the winter period.
In October, the Expana Benchmark Price (EBP) for Chicken Breast Fresh A grade EXW [Expana Code: 9A05] reached €5.36/kg, down 2.25% M-O-M. Similarly, the EBP for Chicken Leg Quarter Frozen A grade EXW [Expana Code: CP22] reached €1.59/kg, down 5.48% M-O-M.
Chicken
Price forecast
The recent decline in the price of Chicken Thigh Meat to 1.12 USD/lb, from a peak of 2.37 USD/lb in Q2 of 2025, highlights notable market dynamics. The current price has returned to the estimated fair band range of 0.97 to 1.32 USD/lb.
The previous overvaluation was exerting downward pressure on prices to return to the fair band range, and the market has now corrected it. The fair band range has also started to increase slightly, adding to overall upward pressure on prices and supporting the longer-term forecast into 2026.
From a Technical Analysis perspective, pricing remains far below the moving average for this commodity, with possible early signs of a price low.
Production costs for chicken thigh meat are at historically low levels, similar to those seen in 2016 and 2020. Since Chicken Thigh prices usually closely follow feeder costs, these low production expenses are likely helping drive the recent high prices and their subsequent correction.
Also, as of September 2025, the gross profit margin for producers is well above the historical average, indicating that current profits are high and could be very profitable for suppliers.
Seasonally, chicken thigh meat prices typically peak in late Q2 and then decline until reaching a low in November. This seasonal trend naturally puts downward pressure on prices each year. Additionally, the US chicken supply and demand balance is currently above its moving average, indicating a likely continued increase in supply.
This surplus further adds to the downward pressure on prices throughout the recent decline seen since Q2 of 2025.
In summary, prices have decreased from a level above the fair band range. The overall fundamental outlook is beginning to exert upward pressure on prices.
Given the trend of declining prices into Q4, seasonality suggests that prices will rise as we move into 2026.
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