Lobster
Lobster
Price movements (monthly)
UB Lobster
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
- Imports of North American lobster products from Canada in July jumped 29.8 percent over the prior year. Shipments of live (+41.9%), in-shell (+24.7%), meat (+13.7%), and prepared (+101.2%) all increased.
- The market has been demand-driven but measured. Premiums repeatedly emerged on smaller tails (notably 2–3 through 6–7 oz ranges) while larger tails continued to face discounts and weak movement.
- Meat values strengthened across major formats—TCK, CKL, Broken CK and related items—driven by brisk fresh-meat demand and tight inventories. Processor access to raw material remained constrained as Maine dock prices spiked and Canadian season dynamics produced an uneven handoff; processors have protected inventory and, in some cases, reduced activity. Overall trading was cautious with holiday demand beginning to surface.
Lobster
Price forecast
Lobster prices have experienced a seasonal decline in Q4 to 9.25 USD/lb, but we expect this will be a brief decline before an increase to a peak in Q1 2026.
The price is already below the regression fair value range of 9.34-12.33 USD/lb, meaning it is too low from a fundamental perspective. The fair value range is also trending higher, creating a dual upward pressure on the price.
New England Lobster production has been declining in recent years, with seasonally adjusted production falling more sharply again in 2025 to the lowest level in more than 13 years, exerting upward pressure on the price. At the same time, though, demand is reportedly subdued, which would be a downward pressure.
The global PMI has risen above 50 between August and October, indicating growth in the economy. Given the positive relationship between the PMI and the Lobster price, this could support a price increase going into the new year.
From a technical perspective, the price is currently trending sideways from a short and long-term perspective. Meanwhile, the RSIs are neutral, indicating the recent price decline isn’t gathering momentum.
This is consistent with the typical seasonal decline in November prior to an increase into Q1 2026, which aligns with our forecast.
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