Potato
Potato
Price movements (monthly)
Potato processing exw NL EBP
/100kg
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
EU
- The EU market situation remains unchanged compared with last month, according to market sources, with a season characterized by significant oversupply and a very low level of free-buy trade.
- Industry analysis reports that EU-4 (Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany and France) producers are receiving fewer orders from key destination markets.
US
- In addition, sources report that the effects of the US import tariff regime are starting to be felt in the European potato sector.
- The North-Western European Potato Growers association (NEPG) has stated that the market needs to re-establish a balance between supply and demand and suggested that significant adjustments will need to be made for next year’s season.
- Although global demand for fries is increasing, this is primarily benefitting emerging export markets such as China and India.
Potato
Supply & demand
Oversupply Persists
Planted area in the EU-4 this year is the largest ever, at 818,800 hectares, up 7.4% year-on-year (y-o-y).
According to figures published by Statistics Netherlands (CBS), the gross yield for ware potatoes in the Netherlands has reached the highest level in 25 years, projected to reach 4.4 million metric tons (mt). This represent an increase of 37% y-o-y.
Market sentiment remains gloomy amid the persistent oversupply situation and stagnant prices.
Overseas Competition
The issue of competition from overseas exporters continues to be of increasing concern for European producers, with China, India and Egypt significantly ramping up export volumes. Although total volumes are currently far below those of Belgium and the Netherlands, India’s exports have increased by 653.6% compared with 2019, up from about 27,000 mt, and China’s by 2,475.5%, up from about 11,000 mt. These countries have been making inroads particularly in Asia and the Middle East, key markets for Europe.
Market sources have suggested that high prices from European producers over recent years have created opportunities for these new entrants, and in order to retain market share, prices for EU product will need to be reduced.
US Tariffs Starting to have Impact
Industry participants report that the import tariff regime imposed by the administration of US President Donald Trump is starting to have an impact on the European potato markets. EU exports to the US were down by 5% y-o-y in August.
Sources speaking to Expana have suggested that lower prices would help EU producers maintain competitiveness in the US market. For the past few years, container shipping rates to the US East Coast have been lower than the cost of transporting product by truck from producers in the middle states of the US, providing a potential opportunity for EU producers.
Adjustments for Next Season
Very high free-buy prices at the end of 2023 and 2024 “led farmers to think that low prices could never happen again”, the NEPG stated. This led to the significant expansion in planted area this year and, as a result, the current oversupply situation and very low prices.
The NEPG has suggested that, going forward, participants across the supply chain will need to collaborate in order for a balance between supply and demand to be established.
Market sources remain skeptical as to how this will play out. Some suggest that the expansion in acreage is largely down to new entrants to the market, who may be inclined to drop out next season, given the “disastrous” result for free-buy prices.
Potato
Price forecast
Current market positioning at EUR 6/100kg reflects a significant discount to the fair value range of EUR 24.1-44/100kg, though several factors suggest limited upside potential heading into late Q4 2025.
The fundamental backdrop presents a notably bearish picture. Importantly, the fair value range itself is increasing, which does provide some underlying support to the market. However, this upward drift in the fundamental baseline has thus far failed to translate into actual price appreciation, suggesting other market forces are overwhelming any theoretical fundamental support. Seasonal patterns typically call for a price increase into Q4 - which supports the idea of some sort of price rally.
Supply dynamics remain decidedly negative. The market is characterised as quiet, with most processors having already secured sufficient contracted supply for their near-term requirements.
This lack of urgency amongst buyers removes a key catalyst for price increases. Furthermore, overall supply levels remain elevated whilst demand continues to disappoint, creating persistent downward pressure on prices.
Technical analysis reinforces the negative picture. Prices remain in a long-term downtrend, indicating that broader market forces continue to push prices lower. Whilst short-term bounces remain possible, the overarching technical structure suggests these would prove temporary rather than marking a meaningful trend reversal. A break above the long-term moving average would begin to shift this view.
Recent reports of bruising issues and dry conditions affecting lifting operations in the EU have thus far failed to shift market sentiment, underscoring just how bearish current conditions remain.
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