Rice
Rice
Price movements (monthly)
Rice white long grain 10% fob VN
Month-on-month Change
Year-on-year Change
- The EBP of Vietnamese cashews, whole white, 320 kernels per lb (WW320) FOB Vietnam, were assessed at $3.14/lb in the week of September 4, 2025, down 4 cents/lb month-on-month (m-o-m).
- For the week of September 4, indications for BRC-certified cashews, prompt shipment on a fob Vietnam basis, were reported in the following ranges: WW320 at $3.08-3.20/lb; WW240 at $3.20-3.30/lb; WW450 at $3.00-3.10/lb; LP at $1.90-2.10/lb; and WS at $2.60-2.72/lb.
- Indications for WW320 fob Ivory Coast were reported at $3.31-3.45/lb.
Rice
Price forecast
The price of rice is currently around 354 USD/mt. This price is within the fair band of 332-387 USD/mt. Therefore, according to the underlying fundamentals, the price is fair. The regression fair band is now declining once more, putting the overall pressure from a fundamental perspective at downwards.
The Supply/Demand Balance has been improving, and the USDA states the supply/demand balance will continue its uptrend into Summer 2025. This should apply downward pressure on the price, should the supply continue to increase. However, the USDA forecasts a decline in the supply/demand balance after summer 2025 that will last for a year. If this transpires, upward pressure will be applied to the price.
The production costs have been moving sideways since July 2023, after the decline from the May 2022 peak, and are now in a slight downtrend. The profit levels are below the lower end of the fair value range, so there is upward pressure on the price to return the profits to normal levels.
Seasonality suggests there is upward pressure from March until the end of the year. Therefore, from seasonality, there is upward pressure.
According to the USDA forecast, rice inventories in weeks of consumption are projected to decline through to the summer of 2025. If realised, an upward price pressure throughout this period will be applied. Despite this, the overall inventory levels remain at a high level in historical terms, which may lessen the upward pressure of declining inventories.
Overall, our models are now pointing to the possibility of further downside before a stronger price rally into 2026.
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