Expana’s 2025
Thanksgiving Dinner Index:
Rises 28.4% Over Last Year
This year’s holiday table could be pricier than recent years, with surging turkey prices leading a wave of cost increases across multiple staples. Expana’s Thanksgiving Dinner Index, which measures price fluctuations across key food commodities that make up a traditional Thanksgiving dinner, increased by 28.4% year over year (YOY) in October 2025.
The Main Meal Index, which is comprised of turkey, pork trimmings, bone-in ham, potato, sweet potato, carrots, and the bread index, jumped 38.1% YOY—its highest recorded rise since the index began—driven by supply shortages in the turkey sector, compounded by disease outbreaks and historically low hatchery output. A frozen 16-pound tom turkey now costs 64% more than last year, while pork trimmings and potatoes have also posted sharp gains.
Even dessert is pricier this year: Expana’s Pecan Pie Index increased by 5.2%, despite falling sugar, vanilla, and butter costs.
As consumers head into the holiday season, the combination of constrained supply chains, shifting production trends, and selective demand sensitivity is shaping a Thanksgiving market unlike any in recent memory—one where every course tells a story of scarcity and price volatility.
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