Conclusion
The 2025 Thanksgiving Dinner Index underscores the most significant wholesale holiday cost surge in years, with overall pricing up 28.4% over the previous year.
The Main Meal Index drove much of that increase, climbing 38.1% YOY on the back of historically tight turkey supplies, elevated pork values, and mixed vegetable market conditions. Turkey market fundamentals remain heavily supply-constrained, keeping wholesale quotations near record highs as the industry enters the peak demand period.
It is important to bear in mind, however, that wholesale market dynamics do not always have an immediate impact on retail pricing. Because retailers typically secure the majority of their Thanksgiving turkey requirements earlier in the year, recent wholesale price escalations may not be fully reflected at the register. This procurement timing creates a natural disconnect between wholesale movements and what consumers ultimately pay, even as availability remains limited and spot transactional activity approaches record levels heading into the holiday season.
Other protein categories reinforced the trend. Bone‑in ham and pork trimmings posted strong gains, supported by earlier disease pressure and export shifts. Potato pricing showed regional divergence, softening in aggregate despite acreage adjustments, while sweet potatoes advanced on recovering but still variable production conditions. Carrot and bread inputs moved lower, providing limited offset to the overall index.
On the dessert side, the Pecan Pie Index rose 5.2% YOY, with higher pecan prices more than offsetting declines in vanilla, sugar, and butter. Sugar and vanilla markets are currently oversupplied, and butter prices have corrected sharply amid heavy cream availability, though weather and trade developments bear watching.
Looking forward, the holiday market enters November with critical uncertainties in play: ongoing disease management, evolving export flows, and consumer response to elevated retail pricing. For both industry participants, these dynamics highlight the intersection of supply chain resilience, commodity market volatility, and shifting consumption patterns.
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