Conclusion
The 2025 Thanksgiving Dinner Index underscores the most significant wholesale holiday cost surge in years, with overall pricing up 28.4% over the previous year.
The Main Meal Index drove much of that increase, climbing 38.1% YOY on the back of historically tight turkey supplies, elevated pork values, and mixed vegetable market conditions. Turkey market fundamentals remain heavily supply-constrained, keeping wholesale quotations near record highs as the industry enters the peak demand period.
It is important to bear in mind, however, that wholesale market dynamics do not always have an immediate impact on retail pricing. Because retailers typically secure the majority of their Thanksgiving turkey requirements earlier in the year, recent wholesale price escalations may not be fully reflected at the register. This procurement timing creates a natural disconnect between wholesale movements and what consumers ultimately pay, even as availability remains limited and spot transactional activity approaches record levels heading into the holiday season.
Looking forward, the holiday market enters November with critical uncertainties in play: ongoing disease management, evolving export flows, and consumer response to elevated retail pricing. For both industry participants, these dynamics highlight the intersection of supply chain resilience, commodity market volatility, and shifting consumption patterns.
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