Turkey
Thanksgiving represents the peak of the season for the whole-body turkey complex, and 2025 is no exception. However, the fact of the matter is that whole-body birds have remained in the figurative spotlight throughout much of the year, with monthly average quotations rallying 77.8% between January and October. For perspective, spot values moved from the second-lowest level of the past decade in January to the second-highest seasonal level on record by October, just $0.08 per pound shy of the previous watermark established in 2022.
While demand trends generally align with seasonal expectations ahead of Thanksgiving, supply shortages are the primary driver this time around. On a year-to-date (YTD) basis, 3.7 million commercial meat-producing turkeys have been lost to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). When coupled with widespread health and livability challenges associated with other diseases including Avian Metapneumovirus, cumulative turkey headcount through the week ending November 8 stands at just 162 million. This represents a 2.5% decline from the same period last year and positions the figure at the lowest seasonal level observed in at least two decades.
Looking at the horizon, market sentiment remains highly mixed. From a production standpoint, egg sets and poult placement figures have been slow to show meaningful gains above year-ago levels. As of August, both metrics remain among the lowest seasonal levels on record, suggesting potential ongoing supply constraints down the road. In addition to limited hatchery output, HPAI has also impacted breeder flocks, with 124,000 commercial birds lost cumulatively in 2025. These factors could have long-term implications for the industry’s ability to recoup and/or expand production.
Although demand patterns are difficult to quantify, market assessments indicate a degree of price-related sensitivity among buyers. Some participants express concern that near-record high price values could trigger a correction similar to that of 2023, the first time in two decades that frozen whole-bird quotations declined throughout the year, including during the Q4 holiday season.
Others note that, with a tight supply environment, limited signs of expansion, and generally steady purchasing, prices could remain supported through the holiday season despite approaching record highs. For the time being, a careful balance is being maintained between constrained supply and seasonal demand, with buyers and sellers closely monitoring production updates and market signals as Thanksgiving approaches.
Pork
The 23/27 bone-in ham market averaged $0.95 per lb. in October 2025, up 13% from October 2024. Bone-in hams peaked at $1.21 per lb. on August 4, 2025. Tightened supplies, driven by disease impacts that began in February and constrained slaughter and production during the peak season, pushed values higher year over year.
After the August 4 peak, the market softened to $0.96 per lb. by the last weekly tally on October 27, a decline of about 20.4%. In line with seasonal patterns, the average price fell from September to October by roughly 4.1%. Slaughter activity has since increased, and disease positivity rates have eased. Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) positivity dropped below 20% across all age groups, and porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDv) declined to about 4% across all age groups.
Mexico remains a major destination for US bone-in hams. However, export volumes to Mexico through July 2025 were down about 10.7% year over year, largely attributed to tariff uncertainty despite existing United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) parameters. Recent export figures are temporarily unavailable due to the US government shutdown.
On the trim side, 15%, 42%, and 72% lean specifications commonly used in sausages, hot dogs, and holiday dishes like stuffing, posted solid year-over-year gains through October 2025. On a monthly-average basis versus October 2024, 15s rose about 26%, 42s increased roughly 10%, and 72s climbed approximately 18%. Each category rallied into July and August before easing as summer ended, with greater availability and softer domestic demand. Even so, prices remained notably above 2024 levels through the end of October.
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